Middle East oil exports to exceed pre-war levels in 2026
Middle Eastern crude oil exports reached 24 million barrels per day in the week ending October 18, 2026, surpassing the pre-conflict average of 23.3 million barrels recorded before fighting began on February 28, 2023, Libertatea reported, citing energy flow tracking data from Kpler. Despite ongoing military operations involving Iran and attacks on maritime traffic, regional producers adapted through complex logistical reorganizations, even as Brent crude prices climbed above $110 per barrel and shipping costs surged.
The surprising recovery follows a sharp contraction in March 2026, when regional exports plunged by 61% due to temporary blockages in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, according to data cited by BFM Business through Libertatea.
Alternative routes and bypassing the Strait of Hormuz
To maintain international supply lines, producing nations maximized land-based transport infrastructure to bypass maritime chokepoints. Data from Kpler shows that the share of crude exports bypassing the Strait of Hormuz climbed from 17% before the conflict to 40% by September 2026. Saudi Arabia increased its Red Sea exports from 750,000 barrels per day to millions of barrels per day, while the United Arab Emirates doubled shipments through the Fujairah terminal. Global commodities strategies expert Natasha Kaneva of JPMorgan noted the shifting market pressures, stating via Wall Street Journal. In October, it is the cost of transporting it
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Persian Gulf shipping costs drive up crude oil prices
Transporting crude from the Persian Gulf has become exceptionally expensive. Kpler data indicates that shipping a single barrel of oil from the Gulf to China reached $37.37, accounting for 25% of a barrel’s total price compared to just 5% under normal conditions. This brings the transport cost for a two-million-barrel cargo to nearly 75 de milioane de dolari.
International benchmarks reflected these persistent supply pressures. Brent crude settled around $110 to $111.69 per barrel in late October 2026, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surpassed $104 to $109.60 per barrel, according to reports from Mediafax and Euronews cited by G4Media and Rador. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub hovered near 88 euros per MWh, and Asian liquefied natural gas reached $30.4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in December 2022-matching highs driven by security incidents near Yemen reported by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), as detailed by G4Media.
Operational risks for crews and refinery prospects
Crew members received hazard bonuses two to three times their normal monthly wages, while captains earned up to $100,000 monthly, and a Chinese recruitment firm offered $25,000 for a single round-trip voyage lasting one to two weeks, according to Libertatea. Despite high crude export volumes, regional Middle Eastern refineries suffered physical and operational disruptions from the conflict, with Kpler estimating that regional refined product output will not return to pre-war capacity levels before the second quarter of 2027.
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