The Shifting Sands of the Middle East: From Sykes-Picot to a New Era of Alignment

Five years have passed since the signing of the Abraham Accords, a period witnessing the most dramatic repositioning of power in the Middle East since the end of the Cold War – and perhaps even since the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916. Like Sykes-Picot, which demarcated imperial spheres of influence, the post-2020 period has seen the erosion of inherited regional arrangements and the emergence of new security alignments. Though, unlike Sykes-Picot, this shift has been shaped by local agency rather than colonial design.

The Genesis of Change: From JCPOA to the Abraham Accords

The period between roughly 2015 and 2025 has been characterized by a competitive multipolar struggle, with global and regional powers repositioning themselves through wars, proxy conflicts and the exhaustion of earlier security arrangements. Four interlocking facets enabled the historic signing of the Abraham Accords, beginning in May 2018 with President Trump’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal . This was followed by the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC), by the U.S. In January 2020.

A key factor was the American endorsement of the “outside-in approach,” prioritizing Arab normalization with Israel over Palestinian self-determination during 2019. This reflected growing frustration among several Arab governments – particularly the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia – with what they perceived as the paralysis of Palestinian leadership, the rejection of incremental diplomatic gains, and an unwillingness to adapt to shifting regional realities. Emirati officials framed normalization as a means to “preserve the possibility” of a two-state solution rather than remain in a deadlock . The Trump administration’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017 further signaled a favorable American posture toward Israeli political claims.

Biden’s Retrenchment and the Rise of New Actors

The establishment of the Abraham Accords was followed by a period of retrenchment in the Middle East under President Joe Biden (2021-2024), although he attempted to expand the Accords, with Saudi Arabia as a focus. However, Washington shifted its focus to China, the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a cautious approach towards Iran’s expansion, demonstrating a perceived U.S. Disengagement from the region.

This disengagement was acutely felt by Gulf states, who repeatedly requested formal defense guarantees, advanced air-defense integration, and clearer red lines against Iran. The Biden administration’s hesitation to extend a security umbrella comparable to NATO-style assurances reinforced Gulf leaders’ incentives to diversify their security partnerships – a gap the Abraham Accords began to fill.

Regional Reactions: China, Russia, and Turkey

Against this backdrop, international and regional actors reacted strategically:

• China: In March 2023, China brokered a reconciliation agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, demonstrating its mediating capabilities without relying on hard power.
• Russia: Russia consolidated its military foothold in Syria through permanent basing at Tartus and Khmeimim, expanded its influence in Africa, and deepened its strategic alignment with Iran through arms transfers and intelligence-sharing.
• Turkey: Turkey utilized the regional vacuum to extend its influence from Libya and the East Mediterranean to Somalia, Sudan, northern Syria, and northern Iraq, pursuing a Neo-Ottoman approach.

The Gaza Conflict and a Return to U.S. Centrality

The restructuring of the Middle East reached a stalemate after the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent invasion of the Gaza Strip. The conflict swiftly expanded to six arenas: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Iraqi Hezbollah, Iran, and the West Bank. This regional war escalated further with reported Israeli, and U.S. Attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.

The return of President Trump to the Oval Office in January 2025 marked a renewed U.S. Presence in the region, a revival of deterrence through military supremacy, and an intention to expand the Abraham Accords. Washington’s renewed paradigm rests on four pillars: the decline of Russian and Chinese involvement, the deterrence of Iran, a strong partnership with Israel and Turkey, and the incorporation of the Accords as the region’s central security and economic architecture. The main outcome is a regenerated U.S. Supremacy and centrality in the region and beyond.