Moscow winter weather trading opened on Thursday as Polymarket launched a prediction contract for the lowest temperature in the Russian capital on Saturday.
Traders are currently buying and selling shares across 11 temperature brackets to establish early price signals before meteorological data is finalized.
The contract resolves using routine weather observations from Vnukovo International Airport (UUWW). Polymarket reported that the leading outcome is currently “2°C” at a 98% implied probability, followed by “1°C” at a 38% price point.
Market settlement depends strictly on official METAR observations published by the Aviation Weather Center for Vnukovo International Airport on the target date. Special observations beginning with the line identifier SPECI are excluded from the qualifying calculations.
The qualifying value is derived from the hourly temperature remark, which begins with the letter T followed by eight digits. For instance, an entry reading T01390133 indicates 13.9°C, while T10171022 marks −1.7°C.
If a routine observation lacks this specific remark, the standard temperature and dew point group in the body of the report governs the record.
Values are rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Observations ending in exactly half a degree round up to the next higher integer, determining which of the 11 bracket ranges contains the final temperature.
As a newly listed contract, the market provides participants an opportunity to set initial odds before hourly weather reports begin publishing. Shares in correct outcomes pay out one dollar each at resolution, while incorrect shares expire worthless.
Traders can also sell positions prior to market close to lock in profits or mitigate losses. If the Aviation Weather Center publishes no routine observations by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the day following the observation date, the platform defaults to the Weather Underground Daily Observations table as the resolution source.
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