NASA Scientist Warns Official Stubble Burning Figures in Punjab and Haryana Are Dramatically Understated

Satellite data analysis suggests official figures for farm fires in Punjab undercount the actual scale of agricultural burning this season.

While the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) reported 4,459 stubble-burning incidents in Punjab up to November 8, 2026, independent research indicates the number could exceed 27,000, NDTV reported.

Discrepancy in Satellite Monitoring

The gap between official statistics and independent estimates stems from how satellites track thermal anomalies. Government agencies primarily rely on polar-orbiting satellites like Aqua, which pass over the region at fixed times.

Hiren Jethva, an aerosol remote sensing scientist, stated that his calculations identified 27,000 fires in Punjab between October 1 and November 5. He explained that farmers have increasingly shifted burning activities to the late afternoon, often between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m., effectively avoiding the detection windows of traditional satellite passes.

Limitations of Current Detection Systems

Current monitoring tools, including the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrorometer (MODIS), identify fires through heat signatures. However, these instruments have limited revisit times, according to a report by the International Forum for Environment, Sustainability and Technology (iFOREST).

The organisation noted that polar-orbiting satellites, including MODIS and VIIRS, identify active fires but because they pass over a location only at certain times, they miss many fires.

Authorities Issue Fines and FIRs for Stubble Burning

Despite the high volume of fires suggested by independent research, official records remain focused on confirmed incidents. According to the CAQM, authorities conducted physical inspections at 2,998 locations, confirming stubble burning at 1,310 sites. Officials have imposed fines totaling Rs 62.55 lakh, with Rs 32.60 lakh recovered, and initiated 884 First Information Reports (FIRs) under Section 223 of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS).

The Indian Agricultural Research Institute (ICAR) reported 708 incidents in that state between September 15 and November 3, 2026. Pracheer Dixit of the Madhya Pradesh Pollution Control Board stated that their role is limited to collating satellite data and forwarding it to district collectors for enforcement.

Poor Air Quality Causes Many Deaths in India

The 2025 State of Global Air report estimated that approximately two million deaths in India in 2023 were associated with poor air quality.

Satellites and Tools Track Crop Residue Burning

Government monitoring relies on polar-orbiting satellites that pass over the region at specific times. Because farmers have shifted burning to the late afternoon, these satellites often miss the fires.

Launched by iFOREST, this online tool integrates data from multiple satellites—including geostationary sensors that provide 15-minute updates—to track the timing, location, and total area affected by crop residue burning. It aims to provide policymakers with a more comprehensive view than traditional fire-count metrics.

In Delhi, authorities have implemented a continuous Graded Response Action Plan from November 1 to February 28. Measures include doubling car parking charges, mandating that offices operate with half their staff, and banning non-essential outdoor construction.

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