NATO Commander Warns Putin Is Becoming More Dangerous and Risk-Accepting

Assessing the Escalation in Hybrid Threats

European intelligence and security services have tracked a sharp rise in covert disruptions across the continent following the invasion of Ukraine. According to an Associated Press interactive tracking map, incidents have escalated from 59 in March 2025 to more than 210 documented cases. These operations range from arson, sabotage, and cyberattacks to vandalism, propaganda, and influence campaigns.

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told the AP at the security conference that Russia’s attitude toward negligence and the direct targeting of NATO neighbors stems from intense pressure on Moscow. Michal likened Putin to a “rat in the corner,” stating that the Russian leader is escalating activities in Europe to break Western support for Kyiv. Both Stringer and Michal emphasized that the surge in covert attacks is a direct consequence of Western support for Ukraine rather than any operational failure by NATO states to secure their borders.

Divergent Views Among Allied Leaders

While senior military officials warn of a febrile environment, political leaders across Europe and North America offer varied assessments regarding the likelihood of a direct military confrontation. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned last week that Russia might target NATO nations with deliberate drone or missile strikes while claiming the incidents were accidental. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed those concerns, directing his government to draft plans to protect critical infrastructure against potential cyberattacks and drone incursions.

Conversely, leaders from Baltic states sharing a land border with Russia have adopted a more measured stance. Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics told reporters on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York that direct military attacks remain unlikely. According to Rinkevics, Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of Russia’s military capacity, and officials observe no unusual troop buildups near NATO borders. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker similarly dismissed fears of an imminent conflict, stating in Des Moines, Iowa, that Putin does not want a conflict with the alliance. Whitaker attributed recent drone incursions in countries like Poland and Romania primarily to electronic warfare and unintentional drift caused by GPS jamming.

Specific Incidents and Attribution Challenges

Attributing covert operations remains a central challenge for Western security agencies. Russian intelligence services frequently recruit saboteurs online, often leaving operatives unaware that they are working directly for Moscow. Despite these challenges, several high-profile plots have drawn direct accusations from European officials.

In August, German authorities accused Moscow of orchestrating a security plot at Leipzig airport, where a drone packed with explosives was discovered next to a Ukrainian plane laden with jet fuel. Last month, British officials reported disrupting a separate Russian plot to target a drone manufacturing facility outside London. In August, an Estonian defense company suffered a fire, and a weapons storage facility in Bulgaria experienced an explosion, though neither incident has been officially attributed to Russia by investigators.

When questioned in May regarding allegations that Moscow is waging a covert campaign against Western nations, Putin dismissed the claims, challenging reporters to name one proven fact. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte cautioned during a panel in Iowa that the alliance remains fully prepared to deliver a tough response to any hostile action, emphasizing that the United States and Europe remain completely intertwined in their collective defense commitments.