NBA Best Bets: Celtics-Mavericks, Knicks-Nuggets & Tatum’s Return – March 6, 2026

Friday’s NBA schedule features a seven-game slate with several intriguing matchups. Among the tighter spreads are the New York Knicks (-1.5) against the Denver Nuggets and the New Orleans Pelicans versus the Phoenix Suns (-4.5). Larger spreads include the Indiana Pacers versus the Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5) and the Dallas Mavericks versus the Boston Celtics (-14.5). A key storyline is the return of Jayson Tatum for the Celtics, his first game back since the 2025 NBA playoffs.

Celtics Projected to Dominate Mavericks

According to projections from SportsLine’s computer model, the Boston Celtics are favored to defeat the Dallas Mavericks by a margin of 21 to 25 points (+500). Dallas has lost five consecutive games, with three of those losses coming by double digits. Boston currently boasts the third-best scoring differential in the NBA at +7.3, while Dallas ranks 22nd at -4.1 points per game. The Mavericks also allow the ninth-most points per game (117.5), compared to the Celtics, who allow the fewest at 107.1 points.

Celtics guard Jaylen Brown leads the team’s offense, averaging 28.9 points per game. He has scored 30 or more points in 28 games this season, including a season-high 50 points in a 146-115 win over the Los Angeles Clippers on January 3.

Knicks Slight Favorites in Denver

The New York Knicks are slight -1.5 point favorites against the Denver Nuggets. This matchup is expected to be closely contested, with tip-off scheduled for 9 PM ET.

Model’s Parlay Picks Offer Potential $1.2 Million Payout

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has a strong track record, returning over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model is currently on a 41-18 run on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season.

The model has identified seven NBA best bets for Friday, March 6. A successful parlay of these picks could yield a payout of more than $1.2 million. The model has also locked in six additional picks, including a first scorer prop that returns more than +700 in a longshot parlay.

How to Access the Model’s Picks

The complete list of the model’s NBA picks is available at SportsLine.

Jayson Tatum’s Career Stats vs. Nuggets

Throughout his career, Jayson Tatum has averaged 21.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists in 16 games against the Denver Nuggets. StatMuse provides a detailed breakdown of his performance against Denver.

Sources: Action Network, YouTube, Yahoo Sports, StatMuse