Norway Faces Potential Food and Fuel Shortages in Wartime, New Report Warns

A new report from the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI) warns that Norway could experience significant shortages of food and fuel in the event of a war, due to its heavy reliance on imports and vulnerabilities in its energy and digital infrastructure. The findings were presented to Industry Minister Cecilie Myrseth on Thursday, March 5, 2026.

Report Highlights Key Vulnerabilities

The FFI report, titled “Supply of food and fuel in crisis and war – vulnerabilities and possible measures,” analyzes Norway’s food and fuel supplies and assesses the potential consequences of a war on Norwegian soil. It examines the impact on trade systems and identifies critical weaknesses.

According to the report, key vulnerabilities include:

• Diesel Dependence: Norway is heavily reliant on imported diesel, marine gas oil, and jet fuel, with only one refinery located at Mongstad. A disruption in imports could create a significant gap between peacetime availability and wartime needs.
• Interdependent Infrastructure: Energy and digital infrastructure are mutually dependent and considered system-critical. The increasing electrification of various sectors, although a climate measure, as well increases vulnerability to power supply disruptions.
• Transport Capacity: Limited and vulnerable transport axes, particularly in Northern Norway, and the potential simultaneous deployment of military forces pose a critical challenge to logistics.
• Food Supply Chain: The food supply is vulnerable due to dependence on imported inputs and labor, which cannot be quickly replaced.

Scenario Planning: War in Norway

The report includes a hypothetical war scenario, outlining potential consequences. As the situation escalates, military fuel consumption and transport demands would increase sharply, while civilian needs for transport, reserve power, and critical infrastructure would also rise. This could lead to hoarding and regional demand shocks, resulting in acute shortages of food and fuel – particularly diesel – in stores and gas stations.

The analysis also considers the potential impact of simultaneous global events, such as a pandemic, animal disease outbreaks, or extreme weather events, which could further disrupt labor and supply chains.

Shift to “Just-in-Time” Logistics Increases Risk

The report notes that Norway has increasingly adopted “just-in-time” logistics, where goods are produced based on immediate needs. Coupled with increased centralization, this makes the country more vulnerable to supply disruptions.

Recommended Measures

FFI recommends a number of measures, prioritized as follows:

• Creation of emergency stocks
• Increased robustness in power and transport infrastructure
• Establishment of clear prioritization mechanisms
• Strengthened European trade cooperation

The report emphasizes the need to address the dilemmas surrounding power dependence, import dependence, and the balance between civilian and military needs through cross-sectoral planning.

Expert Insight

Chief Researcher Gunn Alice Birkemo at FFI has been a key figure in this research. She has worked at FFI since 2008, holding a master’s degree from NTNU and a doctorate from UiO. Her research focuses on total defense and logistics preparedness, including civil-military cooperation, host nation support, supply security, and supply chain management. More information about her work can be found on the FFI website.

“A more insecure world means that we need more knowledge about how we can best respond if a serious crisis or war occurs,” said Minister for Business Cecilie Myrseth in a press release.