Obesity Rates in the US Projected to Soar, Reaching Nearly 50% by 2035

A recent study published in JAMA projects a significant increase in obesity rates across the United States, with nearly half of American adults – approximately 126 million people – expected to be obese by 2035. The research, conducted by scientists at the University of Washington in Seattle, analyzed data from over 11 million participants sourced from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, alongside data from the Gallup Daily Poll.

Rising Obesity Prevalence

The study reveals a dramatic rise in obesity prevalence over recent decades. In 1990, 19.3% of U.S. Adults were considered obese. This figure doubled to 42.5% by 2022, and is forecast to climb to 46.9% by 2035.

Disparities Across Demographics and Geography

The projections highlight substantial disparities based on demographics and geographic location. While all states are anticipated to experience increases in obesity rates, the most significant rises are expected in the Midwestern and Southern states.

Specifically, the study forecasts that by 2035:

• 60% (11.5 million) of Black women will be obese.
• 54% (14.5 million) of Latina women will be obese.
• 47% (36.5 million) of White women will be obese.
• 48% (13.2 million) of Latino men will be obese.
• 45% (34.4 million) of White men will be obese.
• 43% (7.61 million) of Black men will be obese.

Similar trends are expected in California, with obesity rates among Latina and Black women projected to reach nearly 60%, compared to approximately 40% for their White counterparts. Latino men in California could see rates exceeding 50%, compared to around 40% for White men.

Factors Contributing to Obesity

Dr. Amanda Velasquez, director of obesity medicine at Cedars-Sinai Hospital, attributes these trends to systemic disparities. She points to economic instability, chronic stress, and car dependence in cities like Los Angeles as contributing factors. Access to nutritious foods and healthcare, including obesity treatment, as well varies significantly.

Recent changes to Medi-Cal plans in California, which have eliminated coverage for obesity medications and treatment for hundreds of thousands of low-income residents, are expected to exacerbate these challenges. Dr. Velasquez described these changes as “devastating.”

State and Local Initiatives

Despite these challenges, California is projected to fare better than many other states, with a slower rate of obesity growth due to existing state and local policies. These include measures like Senate Bills 12 and 677, which established nutritional standards for schools, labeling laws requiring restaurants to provide nutrition information, and local soda taxes implemented in cities like Berkeley and Oakland.

Arbana Church, principal investigator at the Church Laboratory at UCLA Health, emphasizes the importance of continuing and strengthening these initiatives. She recommends focusing on policies that improve school nutrition, expand transportation infrastructure to encourage walking, maintain economic disincentives for unhealthy foods, and address food deserts by incentivizing grocery stores and farmers markets in underserved communities.

Prioritizing Vulnerable Populations

Both Dr. Velasquez and Church agree that future efforts should prioritize Black and Latino populations, who the study identified as being disproportionately affected by obesity.