Konnor Griffin: The Pirates’ Next Superstar Faces a Crucial Decision

The Pittsburgh Pirates are navigating a complex situation with their top prospect, shortstop Konnor Griffin. While projections consistently rank Griffin as one of the most valuable young players in baseball, the team faces a decision on whether to start him on the Opening Day roster, and whether to offer a contract extension. The situation echoes the Pirates’ handling of Paul Skenes, and carries significant implications for both the player and the franchise.

Griffin’s Exceptional Potential

Evaluations of Konnor Griffin are overwhelmingly positive. One rival club’s model ranks Griffin’s surplus value as the highest of any position player, surpassing even teammate Paul Skenes among pitchers.¹ Despite not yet playing a single inning in the majors, the same model already views Griffin as a top-tier shortstop.¹

The Service Time Dilemma

Despite his potential, the Pirates are hesitant to immediately place Griffin on the Opening Day roster. Several factors contribute to this caution. One consideration is the possibility of securing a contract extension. However, Griffin has only 98 at-bats above Class A, suggesting a need for further development.¹ The Pirates may believe additional time in Triple-A will allow him to refine his offensive approach and better meet expectations.

The Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) Factor

The timing of a potential extension is also crucial. If an extension were close to completion, the Pirates might delay an announcement until after Griffin’s major league debut to preserve their right to a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft pick should he win Rookie of the Year.¹ However, extension talks have not progressed to an advanced stage.¹

Griffin can still qualify for full service time and become PPI eligible if promoted by April 9.¹ This deadline adds urgency to the Pirates’ negotiations, potentially motivating them to increase their offer of over $100 million.¹

Lessons Learned from Paul Skenes

The Pirates are keenly aware of their experience with Paul Skenes. Delaying Skenes’ debut in 2024 until May 11 cost the team a PPI pick when Skenes won Rookie of the Year, and he still accrued a full year of service time.¹ The Pirates aim to avoid a similar outcome with Griffin.

Griffin’s Spring Training Performance

Griffin’s performance in Spring Training was mixed. While four of his seven hits were home runs, he batted .171 in 46 plate appearances with 13 strikeouts and only two walks.¹ However, his .125 batting average on balls in play suggests some degree of bad luck.¹ He finished spring training in a 2-for-18 slump with eight strikeouts.¹

Competition and Development

Detroit Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle, the game’s No. 2 prospect, has shown more polish as a hitter, entering Sunday with more walks than strikeouts and a .923 OPS.² McGonigle was drafted a year earlier than Griffin and is nearly two years older.² The Pirates may believe that additional development time for Griffin is more valuable than the potential PPI pick, especially if he follows a similar trajectory to his first professional campaign at Class-A Bradenton, where he initially struggled before making adjustments and earning promotions.

The Value of an Extension

Securing a long-term extension with Griffin would eliminate service-time considerations. Determining the appropriate contract value presents a challenge, given Griffin’s unique skillset – speed, baserunning, defensive ability, and offensive potential.¹ One potential benchmark is the eight-year, $130 million extension with escalators up to $230 million that the Boston Red Sox awarded Roman Anthony.¹ However, Anthony is a corner outfielder, while Griffin is a shortstop.

The Path Forward

Even without an extension, the Pirates cannot delay Griffin’s arrival indefinitely. Starting Griffin at Triple-A allows him to continue developing while maintaining control over his service time. If Griffin excels in Triple-A, the Pirates would be remiss to hold him down, potentially sacrificing his long-term potential.¹

¹ Sporting News

² ESPN