2024-01-20 14:05:26
China’s economy is currently deteriorating, and the real estate industry bubble is seriously dragging down economic development. The Chinese government is increasing its efforts to support the development of green manufacturing, such as electric vehicles, batteries and renewable energy equipment, and strives to replace the United States in dominating the global emerging industry market. , get out of trouble and achieve economic transformation. Some analysts believe that because electric vehicles account for a small proportion of GDP, they are not enough to drive China’s economic development. On the contrary, government subsidies cannot be sustained for a long time and are more likely to cause international trade wars.
Chinese companies such as auto giant BYD, battery maker CATL and solar manufacturer Longi Green Energy Technology are already among the world’s best-known companies in these markets.
Beijing hopes to use the above-mentioned green industries and other high technologies to overcome the shortcomings of disappearing demographic dividends and getting old before getting rich, get rid of the shadow of sluggish domestic consumption, economic deflation and Japanese-style stagnation, and allow China to replace the United States as the pioneer of the world’s largest economy. And drive China’s economy towards recovery, revitalization and development.
According to the Wall Street Journal, China is estimated to have surpassed Japan last year to become the world’s largest auto exporter due to a surge in car sales to Russia.
BYD will sell a total of 3.02 million electric vehicles in 2023, including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. BYD’s electric vehicle sales are outstanding in the Southeast Asian market. Recently (18th), three car models that will be sold in Indonesia were announced in Jakarta, Indonesia, hoping to expand market share in Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia.
BYD sold 526,000 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2023, surpassing Tesla to become the world’s largest electric vehicle brand, but most of its sales targets are from mainland China. Mr. Wang from Beijing told this station that according to current Beijing regulations, car buyers are not allowed to choose traditional gasoline-burning cars.
Xie Tian, a professor at the Aiken School of Business at the University of South Carolina, and Gu Chunqiu, a financial commentator, both believe that China’s real estate and construction activities account for nearly 30% of the gross domestic product (GDP), and the output value of the entire new energy vehicle industry chain in 2022 It only accounts for about 1.6% of GDP, which is not enough to drive the entire Chinese economy.
Xie Tian pointed out that the quality of Chinese electric vehicles is not good. Quality problems will only become apparent after a period of use. Questions such as requests for returns, repairs, insurance premiums, etc. came one after another. Chinese electric vehicles are called “living coffins on fire” in China. Because the quality does not meet U.S. requirements and safety standards, it is currently unable to enter the U.S. market.
BYD will recall more than 60,000 Tang DM-i gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles using soft-pack batteries in 2022. The reason for proposing the recall plan is that battery pack defects may cause “thermal runaway”.
Reuters recently quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD plans to stop production of soft-pack batteries used in its best-selling gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles. Last month, it began to convert two soft-pack battery production lines in factories in Shaanxi and Zhejiang provinces to produce square-case batteries. However, the factory in Qinghai Province will continue to produce soft-pack batteries until early 2025 when soft-pack batteries will be completely discontinued. At present, plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles account for nearly half of BYD’s global sales and are mainly used in the mainland Chinese market.
In extreme cases, leaking electrolyte could cause the battery to burn or explode, people familiar with the matter said. Both BYD and industry experts believe that soft-pack batteries have a higher probability of electrolyte leakage. However, BYD or Chinese regulatory authorities have yet to announce any cases of electrolyte leakage.
Pouch-type batteries do not require a metal shell, look a bit like an aluminum foil pack, and are lighter than traditional cylindrical or square lithium batteries.
Xie Tian further pointed out, “The biggest driving force for China’s electric vehicles actually comes from government subsidies. Only at this price can government subsidies enter the European market. Subsidies actually cannot make money. And the EU will target China with subsidies, which may Increase tariffs. Without subsidies, this industry cannot sustain itself. If subsidies continue, the Chinese government will not be able to spend much money to subsidize this industry. Now the Chinese government’s fiscal deficit is very serious. Almost all governments have deficits and have cut civil servants. , cutting their bonuses, so it doesn’t last long.”
As China vigorously moves into high-end manufacturing, the United States and other wealthy countries are also abandoning globalization, supporting and protecting strategic industries, and reducing overreliance on China.
Gu Chunqiu said: It is actually very ridiculous that the CCP wants to develop electric vehicles to stimulate the economy. “Because electric vehicles are developed with state subsidies from the Chinese Communist Party, this will cause disputes in international trade. Foreign countries will conduct anti-monopoly investigations into the Chinese Communist Party’s electric vehicle exports, which is not good for the Chinese Communist Party. Because the Chinese Communist Party’s economy currently has domestic consumer market power It is very low. The domestic market cannot consume so many electric vehicles, so it must be exported, which will cause a trade war. In addition, if the launch of electric vehicles is successful, it will make the CCP complacent and think that the CCP’s model of managing the economy is successful. . The Party must be in charge of everything. If you leave the Party in charge of everything, you will not be able to succeed. On the contrary, this will reduce the free space for enterprises to be independent and the independent judgment of the market. On the contrary, the CCP has blocked the final development route of electric vehicles. It ultimately It will ruin the development of electric vehicles in China.”
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