A massive data leak from the Russian state statistics agency, Rosstat, suggests that the number of Russian soldiers killed in the war in Ukraine has likely surpassed 450,100.
While the Kremlin maintains strict secrecy regarding military casualties, the leaked material provides the most detailed insight yet into the scale of losses. On November 8, Nettavisen reported that pro-Ukrainian hacker groups Silent Crow and Cyberpartisans claimed to have obtained records from Rosstat, which they used to build an extensive database.
While the leak contains over 10 million death records spanning many years, analysts have been able to isolate combat-related deaths using specific codes and location data.
The human cost of the conflict has escalated dramatically since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022. According to a review by the Danish newspaper Berlingske, Russia lost fewer than 20,000 soldiers during the first year of the war. Financial Times analysts estimate that the total death toll had already reached 550,000 by the beginning of August 2026. If the current pace of attrition continues, total deaths could reach 650,000 by the end of 2026.
Russian authorities have aggressively suppressed efforts to document these losses. In Yaroslavl, a 48-year-old man was sentenced to 14 years in prison for treason after photographing gravestones of fallen soldiers, as reported by Politico.
“The growing number of graves must be a sight that bothers the authorities very much, because it reminds them that Putin’s war has failed,” Jan C. Behrends, a historian at the Leibniz Centre for Contemporary History, told Politico.
Russia Faces Severe Losses Compared to Historical Conflicts
The conflict has now persisted for 1,722 days, with recent analysis indicating Russia has lost 27 times as many soldiers in Ukraine as the Soviet Union did during its nine-year war in Afghanistan. While official figures from the Soviet-Afghan War (1979–1989) placed the death toll at approximately 15,000, current losses are far more severe.
Historical precedents, such as the 1812 Napoleonic campaign against Moscow, highlight a tradition of endurance where the harsh winter and the sacrifices of young serfs, as described in Leo Tolstoy’s War and Peace, were credited with saving Russia.
Mounting Casualties Near Frontline Cities
The intensity of the fighting is reflected in the death tolls tied to specific geographic areas. An analysis by the Financial Times suggests that approximately 120,000 deaths are linked to the areas surrounding Avdiivka and Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, with another 48,000 deaths recorded near Bakhmut. These figures exceed the total number of Soviet soldiers killed during the entire ten-year war in Afghanistan, which officially stood at 15,000.
The demographic profile of the fallen is also shifting. According to the Financial Times, the average age of dead soldiers has risen from 34 in 2022 to 40 in 2025. Men aged between 35 and 44 currently constitute the largest group of fatalities, with about 158,000 recorded deaths.
The Kremlin Hides Casualty Data to Aid Recruitment
If people could easily find out the share of soldiers who die at the front, it would be extremely difficult to even recruit 30,000 soldiers a month,” military analyst Ian Matveev told Politico.
The Kremlin continues to treat casualty data as a state secret, having not released official figures since September 2022. According to Politico, Russian authorities have also classified court cases involving the declaration of soldiers as missing or dead to further obscure the true toll.
Recent operational incidents have further complicated the situation, such as during a Ukrainian drone strike against Leningrad Oblast, where Russian air defenses mistakenly shot down three of their own aircraft: a MiG-31 fighter, a Ka-52 attack helicopter, and a Mi-8 helicopter.
Verifying Death Tolls Remains Difficult Due to Data Delays
Determining an exact number is difficult because Rosstat records often include long delays, and some deaths are misclassified or include civilians.
The scale is larger than historical Soviet operations. Combat in individual cities like Avdiivka and Pokrovsk has resulted in more fatalities than the entire Soviet-Afghan War, which saw 15,000 deaths over a decade.
Independent media outlets, including the Financial Times and Berlingske, have verified aspects of the data by cross-referencing death codes and geographic markers against known frontline activity.
The Unanswered Question
Despite the emergence of leaked databases and reports of localized mass burials in regions like Moscow Oblast and near Krasnodar, the total number of Russian soldiers who have perished in the war remains an unconfirmed figure. While independent analysts and foreign intelligence services have provided estimates, the Russian government has not provided an updated official count since 2022, leaving the true magnitude of the loss of life an open, state-guarded question.
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