Russia to Keep Hardline Stance on Japan, Analysts Tell Kyodo News

Russia Detains Hokkaido Shimbun Journalist in Espionage Case

Russia’s detention of a Japanese journalist for alleged spying marks a fresh low in bilateral ties, and Moscow’s hardline stance toward Tokyo is set to continue at least until the Ukraine war ends, according to foreign policy analysts cited by Kyodo News. Russia’s security agency said on Oct. 13 it had detained a journalist with the Hokkaido Shimbun newspaper for conducting intelligence activities. The reporter was subsequently transferred to Moscow, where a local court approved a two-month detention order. Despite bilateral treaty provisions guaranteeing consular access within four days of custody, authorities have not permitted a consular meeting.

Tokyo and Moscow Relations Deteriorate over Ukraine Sanctions

Diplomatic relations between Tokyo and Moscow have deteriorated significantly since Japan joined Western sanctions following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The relationship previously benefited from frequent summits between former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Moscow now officially classifies Japan as an “unfriendly” nation. Relations suffered further strain in August when Putin made his first visit to Etorofu, one of the disputed islands claimed by both countries known in Japan as the Northern Territories and in Russia as the Southern Kurils.

Unlike European nations that maintain that diplomatic normalcy is impossible while Putin remains in power, Japanese leadership has shown greater caution. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has avoided provocative visits to Kyiv, choosing instead to dispatch business leaders alongside foreign and trade ministry officials to Russia in May to protect Japanese corporate assets. In July, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi engaged in a brief conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Manila, marking the first high-level contact between the top diplomats since the outbreak of the war.

James Brown, a professor at Temple University in Japan and an expert on bilateral relations, noted that Tokyo’s primary objective remains resolving the war so that ties can revert to pre-invasion conditions. However, Brown argues that Japan’s restraint invites further provocation, pointing to the detention of the Hokkaido Shimbun journalist as an example of hostage-taking that warrants a harsher retaliation.

Security Concerns Supplant Territorial Negotiations as Core Issue

The structural foundation of diplomacy shifted markedly in 2020 when Russia amended its constitution to explicitly ban the cession of federal territory, effectively foreclosing compromise on the territorial dispute, according to Taisuke Abiru, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. Consequently, national security has supplanted territorial negotiations as the core bilateral issue. A delegation from China’s Heilongjiang province recently visited Etorofu to study joint economic projects with Russia, prompting a formal protest from Tokyo. Analysts observe that Beijing and Russia increasingly coordinate narratives criticizing Japan’s security policies while Moscow remains cautious about becoming economically dependent on Chinese markets. Despite Putin’s visit to Etorofu, Japan has not called back its ambassador in Moscow and continues to purchase liquefied natural gas imports from Russia.

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