Gorton and Denton By-Election: Labour Faces Uphill Battle Against Greens and Reform UK
A parliamentary by-election in Gorton and Denton, Greater Manchester, is proving to be a significant test for the Labour Party, with the Greens and Reform UK mounting strong challenges. The outcome on Thursday could have ramifications beyond this single seat, potentially influencing upcoming local elections and fueling internal party tensions.
Starmer’s Campaign and the Stakes
Prime Minister Keir Starmer made a rare appearance at a by-election, campaigning in Gorton and Denton and criticizing both the Green Party’s drugs policy and Reform UK’s platform as “toxic.” This unusual move for a serving prime minister underscores the seriousness with which Labour views the contest. The party won the seat with a majority of 13,413 in 2024, but declining popularity since Starmer took office has made it vulnerable.
Starmer framed the election as a choice between Labour stability and the divisive politics of Reform UK, warning against importing “anger and division” into a traditionally Labour stronghold. He argued that a vote for the Green Party would inadvertently pave the way for a Reform victory.
A Three-Way Contest
Polls indicate a tight race, with an Opinium poll showing Labour and the Greens tied at 28% and Reform UK close behind at 27%. The Financial Times reports that this contest is “fraught with political risk” for Starmer.
The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is attempting to capitalize on urban discontent and position itself as the primary alternative to Labour. They believe they are better placed than Labour to attract voters disillusioned with the current political landscape. The Greens won 6.7% of the national vote and four seats in the 2024 general election, and came second in 40 constituencies, many of which were previously Labour seats.
Reform UK, under Nigel Farage, presents a challenge from the right, with candidate Matt Goodwin attracting controversy due to his views on immigration. Labour has criticized Farage for not swiftly distancing himself from endorsements by figures like Tommy Robinson.
Internal Labour Concerns
A defeat for Labour in Gorton and Denton, even as unlikely to trigger an immediate leadership challenge – described as “the kindling is wet” by one minister – would undoubtedly weaken Starmer’s position and exacerbate existing tensions within the party. There is some regret within Labour that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was not allowed to stand as the party’s candidate, with some believing he could have secured a win.
Labour activists are reportedly “frightened” about the possibility of a Green victory, fearing it could trigger a “Green wave” in upcoming local elections in May, particularly in areas where the party currently has limited representation.
Potential Outcomes and Implications
Analysts at More in Common suggest that the worst outcome for Labour would be either a Green win or a Reform win with the Greens in second place. This outcome would reinforce the fragmentation of the left vote and undermine Starmer’s strategy of positioning Labour as the only viable alternative to Reform.
The by-election result is expected around 4 am on Friday, but a close contest could lead to recounts and a delayed declaration. Starmer, Farage, and Polanski are all prepared to travel to Manchester depending on the outcome.