A super El Niño weather pattern could trigger an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. The projections show that vulnerable and impoverished regions with limited access to electricity and cooling will bear the heaviest toll.
Africa’s Sahel Region Faces Severe Mortality Risks
Africa’s Sahel region is projected to experience the greatest loss of life from the extreme heat driven by this year’s strong El Niño. The Sahel spans a dry belt of approximately 3.05 million square kilometers across Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, sitting between the Sahara Desert and tropical savannas. The region cuts through parts of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Sudan, Senegal, and Eritrea. According to the Climate Impact Lab research team—which includes Michael Greenstone, Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle, and Emily Grover-Kopec—some of the largest global temperature anomalies over the next six months are concentrated across this belt, driving up heat impacts compared to other regions.
Four nations within the Sahel face the most severe projected impacts from September 2026 through the end of February 2027: Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad. Together, these four countries are projected to see 66,800 additional deaths from extreme heat compared with a normal year.
- Nigeria: As the most populous nation in the group with 237.5 million residents, Nigeria is projected to record 31,400 additional heat deaths—making it the country most likely globally to experience the highest heat mortality under this super El Niño. More than 60% of the population were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025, and frequent power cuts disrupt even homes connected to electricity.
- Sudan: Projected to face the second-largest toll with 17,500 heat-related deaths. War has destroyed businesses, jobs, and power supplies, leaving an estimated 57% of people in extreme poverty in 2025.
- Niger: Projected to record 10,000 heat-related deaths. Approximately 41% of the population lived below the national poverty line in 2021, and only 21% had access to electricity in 2024, leaving most residents without power to run fans or cooling devices.
- Chad: Projected to see 8,000 heat-related deaths. About 44.8% of the population lived in poverty in 2022, and just 13% had access to electricity in 2024. Populations in both Niger and Chad rely heavily on farming, exposing them directly to droughts and poor harvests.
Methodology and Regional Disparities
To calculate these mortality figures, the research team utilized seasonal weather forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to project how temperatures will deviate from the norm over the next six months. They then applied peer-reviewed Climate Impact Lab models that evaluate how temperature variations affect death rates across 24,378 distinct regions worldwide.
The models account for local climates, population vulnerability, and coping capacities by comparing projected outcomes against average mortality for the same months between 1996 and 2025. The findings indicate that impoverished regions face generally more heat-related mortality than wealthier areas experiencing similar temperatures, primarily because low-income areas lack the infrastructure and resources needed to protect individuals from extreme heat.
Vulnerable Populations and Mitigation Needs
While the study did not directly address who is most at risk, public health research demonstrates that older adults over the age of 65, young children aged zero to four, and individuals with chronic health conditions face the highest risk from extreme heat. Across Africa, outdoor workers such as farmers are particularly exposed to dangerous temperatures in environments where indoor cooling and reliable electrical grids are largely absent.
Researchers emphasize that governments in heavily impacted regions must implement targeted protective measures now.