American Politics Swings Between Parties While the Class Divide Widens
American politics over the past decade settled into a self-reinforcing cycle of backlash that virtually guarantees heightened polarization and increasing voter disaffection. The White House changed parties in three straight elections, and control of the House flipped in three consecutive midterms. After each of these elections, the winning party claimed a mandate to finally address Americans’ growing sense of economic dislocation and political disenchantment, and each time it failed to deliver.
This is what dealignment looks like. In the current arrangement, that produces a reliable rhythm. Democrats win big when a Republican holds the White House. In presidential years, the electorate grows by tens of millions. Those added voters are disproportionately noncollege, less attached to either party, and now lean slightly Republican.
The Persistent Education Gap in Electorate Data Since 2012
Even as each election ping-pongs back and forth between the parties, the class divide remains stubbornly in place. Data from the Associated Press show it growing even faster, reaching 31 points in 2026. The electoral carousel goes up and down, but class dealignment persists.
That is why a midterm landslide does little to change the underlying shape of American politics. A wave lifts the party’s fortunes with nearly every group at once. On election night, gains among college graduates and a modest recovery among working-class voters blur together into a single triumphant story. When the tide goes out, Democrats are left with the same lopsided class coalition that plagued them for more than a decade. Americans remain in an endless limbo where neither party can govern for working people.
Noncollege Voters Drive Senate Majorities and Democratic Gains
Democrats should look closely at where their gains came from rather than overreading recent victories.
There is plenty of raw material to work with. That is a ready-made audience for an economic populist message aimed at working-class voters. Many of those voters agree that the system is rigged but don’t yet trust Democrats to fix it.
Building Lasting Support Among Working-Class Voters Before 2028
Union households and lower-income voters show that a class-based appeal can still work. Donald Trump handed Democrats a reprieve, not a realignment.
Keep reading