Typhoon Koguma Tracks Northwestward Near Kwajalein
Typhoon Koguma, also identified as Japanese Typhoon Number 29, is located 202 km north of Kwajalein, moving northeastward at 17 km/h.
Koguma Shifts Trajectory Under Ridge Influence
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reports that Koguma is currently tracking northeastward. For the next 12 hours, the system will move northward, steered by a near-equatorial ridge located to the southeast. After this initial period, a more prominent subtropical ridge to the northeast will become the dominant steering mechanism.
Under the influence of this subtropical ridge, Koguma is expected to move in a counter-clockwise arc between 12 and 60 hours from the current report.
System will intensify modestly before accelerating
Current data shows a maximum significant wave height of 3 meters (10 feet). The JTWC expects the system to consolidate slowly over the next 60 hours due to a marginally favorable environment, resulting in only modest intensification.
The rate of intensification is projected to increase after 60 hours. This acceleration is expected once the vortex fully develops, achieves better vertical alignment, and accesses a poleward outflow channel.
Models disagree on speed of Koguma
Meteorological models show varying degrees of consensus regarding Koguma’s path and speed:
- Trajectory: Most model guidance is in good agreement, with a cross-track spread of 370 kilometers at five days, though the NAVGEM model differs.
- Speed: There is greater disparity in speed, with an along-track spread of 685 kilometers at five days. The GFS model is the slowest solution, while the UKMET ensemble is the fastest.
The JTWC track forecast aligns closely with the multi-model consensus, which balances the opposing speed estimates of the GFS and UKMET models.
Koguma Status and Tracking Details
| Metric | Current Status / Forecast |
|---|---|
| Location | 202 km north of Kwajalein |
| Current Speed | 17 km/h (9 knots) |
| Wave Height | 3 meters (10 feet) |
| Primary Steering | Subtropical ridge (after 12 hours) |
Common Questions About Typhoon Koguma
Where is Typhoon Koguma heading?
After an initial northward move, the system is forecast to turn northwestward in a counter-clockwise arc between 12 and 60 hours, eventually establishing a northwestward trajectory.
When will the storm intensify?
Modest intensification is expected over the first 60 hours, with a faster rate of intensification forecast after 60 hours once the vortex aligns and taps into a poleward outflow channel.
Which weather models are tracking the storm?
The JTWC utilizes a multi-model consensus including GFS, UKMET, and NAVGEM, though COAMPS-TC is currently an outlier regarding intensity.