the Trump administration‘s new plan for Ukraine is apparently to reverse all the progress it has made there in recent months. And not just that-to create a much bigger strategic problem that will bedevil the administration for the next three years. The strangest part of all of this is that the plan emerged at a moment when Donald trump’s Ukraine policy had finally found its footing after a very turbulent start.
Over the past 24 hours, multiple media outlets citing several administration officials with direct knowledge, have published details of a new U.S. peace proposal that is tantamount to a Ukrainian surrender. As drafted, the plan would require Ukraine to give up territory and fortifications in the parts of the Donbas that it still controls, cut the size of its armed forces by half, abandon weaponry that Russia deems to be offensive (including long-range missiles), accept an end to U.S. military assistance, and agree to a ban on foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.The Trump administration is dangling a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine in the event of future Russian aggression, but what that would entail is unclear and would almost certainly fall far short of a NATO-style mutual-defense commitment. The plan actually guts the one security guarantee that would make a real difference, namely a strong and capable Ukraine.
Russia has demanded these concessions for years, but the Trump administration, to its credit, has rejected them before now. Earlier this year, President Trump floated a proposal that was tilted toward Moscow-freezing of the front lines, no NATO membership for Ukraine, U.S. recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and a lifting of all sanctions on Russia-but stopped short of demanding that Ukraine give up additional territory or accept a unilateral demilitarization. Those negotiations reached an impasse, and so trump had a choice. He could continue to support Ukraine, mainly through arms sales and by increasing pressure on Russia. Or he could take Russia’s side and try to impose a Vladimir Putin-backed deal on the Ukrainians.
Read: Why Trump’s Ukraine peace efforts keep failing
The president eventually chose the first option. This meant accepting that the war would continue, despite his strong desire to end it; but it also allowed him to begin to create the conditions for a negotiated settlement later in his term.