University of Padova Academic Research Quantifies Competing Risks in Student Degree Paths
Students changing degree programs face a lower hazard of graduation while experiencing little to no reduction in their overall risk of dropping out, according to research published in Social Indicators Research by University of Padova statisticians Claudia Franceschini, Anna Giraldo, and Silvia Meggiolaro.
The study, which analyzes administrative data for first-cycle degree students enrolled between the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 academic years at one of Italy’s largest public institutions, applies continuous-time data to evaluate the complexities of student academic careers. By utilizing cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, the authors evaluated the instantaneous risk of both dropout and degree completion while accounting for competing risks across four distinct academic fields of study.
Statistical Models Track Divergent Outcomes Across Disciplines
The Padova research team estimated models separately for the institution’s four fields of study, revealing that predictor variables associated with dropping out and graduating do not behave uniformly across disciplines.
The findings indicate that switching academic programs offers almost no protective effect against student attrition. The single exception identified in the administrative data involves students enrolled in humanities programs, where switching majors showed a measurable relationship with dropout prevention. For all other analyzed disciplines, program changes failed to lower the likelihood of permanent withdrawal from the university.
Program Changes Correlate With Delayed Graduation Timelines
Beyond the impact on retention, the research demonstrates a statistical association between changing degree programs and delayed academic completion. Students who transition between different courses of study exhibit a lower hazard of eventual graduation compared to those who remain on a direct track.
Because the study accounts for competing risks—where a student may either drop out, change programs, or graduate—the authors isolate the specific drag that program switching exerts on timely degree attainment.
What data and methods did University of Padova researchers use?
What data did the University of Padova researchers analyze?
The study examined administrative records for students enrolled in first-cycle degree courses at the University of Padova across academic years from 2016–2017 through 2020–2021.
Which statistical method was used in the research?
The authors applied cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate the instantaneous risk of dropout and degree completion while accounting for competing risks.
Did switching majors help students avoid dropping out?
Program changes were not statistically significant for preventing dropout across most disciplines, with the exception of students enrolled in humanities programs.
Where was the study published?
The paper, titled “Modelling University Career Paths: A Competing-Risks Analysis of Dropout and Degree Completion at the University of Padova,” was published in Social Indicators Research (Volume 184, Issue 3) in September 2026.
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