US Arms Race: Confronting China – Strategy & Defense

An American think tank recommends that the US Air Force acquire at least 500 new “next generation” fighter planes and bombers – to be able to face China in a possible major war. The recommendation is well above the level at which the Air Force itself has operated.

The recommendation comes in one the report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, which is an affiliate of the Air and Space Forces Association. The report was published on February 9, 2026 and was written by former USAF officer Mark A. Gunzinger and Mitchell researcher Heather R. Penney.

according to Defense News the US Air Force has previously signaled that it plans at least 185 F-47s (Boeing) and at least 100 B-21s (Northrop Grumman).

The Mitchell Institute believes this is not enough if the US is to be able to face China in a high-intensity conflict.

Wants 300 F-47s and 200 B-21s

The core of the argument is what the report calls “sanctuaries” – areas an adversary can use as relatively safe bases to build up and carry out attacks.

The report points out that China has developed A2/AD (anti-access/area-denial) to make it dangerous and difficult for the US to operate near Taiwan, while at the same time Chinese aircraft and missiles can be moved far into the country and thus become more difficult for US forces to reach.

The Mitchell Institute argues that the Air Force should acquire at least 300 of the upcoming ones the F-47 fighter jet and at least 200 of the new stealth bomber B-21 Raider – a total of at least 500 “next generation” platforms.

Warns against attrition

The Mitchell Institute’s research director and former F-16 pilot Heather R. Penney warns in a comment at Defense News against the fact that the US could end up in an exhausting war of attrition if one does not have the capacity to strike bases and free zones from the air. They can then be drawn into long and exhausting conflicts.

She refers to historical wars – and the current war in Ukraine – as examples of what such wear and tear scenarios can entail.

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Will slow down phasing out

Pending the arrival of F-47s and B-21s in greater numbers, the report recommends that the United States not retire the B-1s and B-2s until it has at least 100 B-21s available, and that at the same time it increases the procurement rate of B-21s.

In addition, they want the Air Force to buy more of other aircraft: 74 F-35A and 24 F-15EX a year, and invest more in unmanned “wingmen” drones that can fly alongside manned aircraft and help search for targets, disrupt the enemy or carry weapons.

The think tank also believes that the US should have at least 300 bombers in total. Defense News concludes that – given today’s 76 B-52s – it could in practice mean at least 224 B-21s, if the US ends up with only two bomber types when the B-1 and B-2 are phased out.