Rising temperatures cause melting ice to send fresh water into the North Atlantic, which weakens the ocean circulation system that helps maintain a relatively mild climate in Northern Europe.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation moves warm water north and dense cold water south, according to a warning published by the BBC and reported by lrytas.lt. Scientists warn that any significant slowdown of this system could trigger severe and irreversible climate shifts across the globe.
The system prevents Scandinavian ports from freezing during winter and grants London a much milder climate than regions in Canada or Kazakhstan sharing the same latitudes. Kažys said that these currents primarily drive European winter weather while their summer influence fades as atmospheric temperatures equalize.
Global warming disrupts currents
Melting ice sheets around Greenland pour fresh water into the North Atlantic, reducing salinity and water density. This influx prevents water from sinking effectively, which threatens to stall the entire circulation engine.
Concerns escalated in October 2024 when 44 climate and ocean researchers signed an open letter warning the Nordic Council of Ministers that collapse risks for the AMOC remain heavily underestimated. Experts met again during October 2025 in Helsinki and Rovaniemi to review the growing threat.
The Nordic Council of Ministers published a report titled “A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping” in February 2026. The document urges governments to improve ocean monitoring and establish early-warning systems, emphasizing that the future of the current remains deeply uncertain.
Potential global consequences
A complete collapse of the AMOC would plunge the North Atlantic and much of Europe into severe cooling while global temperatures elsewhere continue to rise. Precipitation patterns would shift wildly across Northern Europe, accompanied by harsher winter weather extremes and rising coastal sea levels.
Agriculture, energy production, and food security would face immediate disruption under such a scenario. The Nordic researchers’ report highlights that these impacts would diverge sharply from standard global warming projections, freezing specific regions while leaving others to bake.
The Baltic region would also experience major climate instability, though exact temperature and precipitation changes for Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia remain difficult to model precisely.
Scientists assess AMOC collapse risks and model uncertainties
Complete shutdown of the AMOC is not inevitable within the coming decades, though scientists stress that the precise timeline remains unknown. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded in a 2021 assessment that the circulation will very likely weaken this century without suffering an abrupt collapse before 2100.
Researchers caution that existing climate models still lack data on deep-ocean physics. The primary warning centers on managing an unquantified risk with planetary consequences rather than predicting an immediate new ice age for Europe.
“The main message from scientists is not that Europe is definitely facing a new ice age anytime soon,” the reports note, urging continued emission reductions and upgraded ocean observation.
How melting ice affects AMOC and report recommendations
How does melting Greenland ice affect the AMOC?
Because dense, salty water must sink to drive the circulation loop, this dilution starves the current of its primary engine.
What did the Nordic Council report recommend?
Published in February 2026, the report urges nations to strengthen ocean monitoring networks and build early-warning systems to prepare for potential tipping points.
Are Baltic winters guaranteed to freeze if the current stops?
While the exact local impacts on Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia remain difficult to predict, scientists warn that a shutdown would destabilize winter temperatures and precipitation across the entire Baltic climate zone.
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