Western countries increasingly believe the world is heading for global war, according to a Politico poll detailing growing public anxiety about the risk and cost of a new era of conflict.
In the five countries where the survey was conducted – the US, Canada, the UK, France and Germany – the majority of respondents believe that the world is becoming more dangerous. American, Canadian, French and British respondents believe that the outbreak of World War III is more likely than impossible in the next five years.
The proportion of respondents predicting another global conflict has risen sharply since independent polling agency Public First asked the question in March 2025. “The shift in Western public attitudes in less than a year reflects a dramatic shift to a more uncertain world in which war is perceived as likely and alliances are fragile,” said Seb Ride, head of polling at Public First.
But the media survey also reveals limited willingness among the Western public to make sacrifices to pay for more military spending. While there was generally broad support for increasing defense budgets in the UK, France, Germany and Canada, that support fell sharply when people realized it could mean taking on more government debt, cutting other services or raising taxes.
“Our research shows that the growing concern about war does not allow leaders to spend large sums on defense,” adds Reid. “If anything, it’s that voters are now less willing to make the compromises needed to improve military security. So European leaders are in a difficult position – they can’t rely on the US, they can’t use that as a reason to invest in their country, and they’re under more pressure to urgently solve this problem in a world where conflict seems closer than ever.”
The results, based on surveys of more than 2,000 citizens in each country between February 6 and 9, reveal the challenge NATO leaders face as they try to strengthen security at a time when public finances are tight.
That struggle will shape discussions among policymakers from around the world heading to Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference, which begins on Friday.
With no sign of an imminent end to Russia’s four-year all-out war against Ukraine and US military action in Iran, Syria, Venezuela and Africa under President Donald Trump, many see a growing risk of global conflict.
This trend is particularly pronounced in the UK, where 43% think another world war is “likely” or “very likely” to break out by 2031 – up from 30% in March 2025. Almost half of Americans – 46% – think another world war is “likely” or “very likely” by 2031 – up from 38% last year. Among the five countries, only Germans think that a third world war is generally unlikely in the next five years.
When it comes to military action by individual countries, respondents in the US are the most likely to think their country will go to war in the next five years, followed by respondents in the UK and France.
This suggests that NATO’s nuclear powers may be more prepared for conflict than other countries, and that Trump’s image as a “president of peace” is not convincing voters at home.
At least one in three people in the US, UK, France and Canada think it is likely or very likely that nuclear weapons will be used in war in the next five years.
Russia is seen as the biggest threat to peace in Europe, while Canadians see Trump’s America as the biggest security threat. In France, Germany and Great Britain, the second biggest threat is considered to be the USA, which respondents cite much more often than China.
Majorities of respondents in France, Germany, Great Britain and Canada say their country should spend more on defence, with this opinion most pronounced in Great Britain and Canada.
However, the question is how to finance this. The POLITICO poll found that support for more defense spending fell when people were asked to consider whether that funding should come from cuts in other budgets, more government borrowing or tax increases.
According to the results, the French and German publics are less inclined to support higher defense budgets in the context of a spending compromise than they were last year.
In Germany, defense spending was one of the most unpopular uses of funds, second only to foreign aid.
In 2025, 40% of the French public and 37% of the German public said they would support an increase in defense spending when trade-offs were mentioned. This year, support for it fell to just 28% in France and 24% in Germany.
Both countries are now more likely to oppose more defense spending when they have to consider how to pay the bill.
The POLITICO poll showed that public opinion is significantly skeptical about creating a standing EU army under a central command, an idea that has been mentioned by the European Commission. The proposal received the support of only 22% of people in Germany and 17% in France.
Compulsory military service was most popular in Germany and France, where about half of the population supported the idea.
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date:2026-02-13 12:43:00
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