Indonesia Economic Outlook 2026: Stockbit Snips Analysis

Daily Market Performance 🚀

IHSG	Foreign Flow	Exchange rate USD/IDR	Gold
8.212,3 -0,64%	-Rp. 2.0 trillion	16.839 +0,12%	4.989 +0,83%

Oil	Coal	CPO	Nickel
67,8 +0,50%	119,0 +0,00%	4.041 +0,10%	17.428 -2,53%

👋 Stockbitor!

Government held Indonesia Economic Outlook 2026 on Friday (13/2). Here are some of the highlights that we summarize:

• Economic Growth Target
  • 1Q26: +5,5–6% YoYdriven by accelerating government spending, domestic investment, and increased household consumption amid holiday celebrations. Minister of Finance, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, estimate that realized state spending will reach IDR 809 T in 1Q26 (+30.4% YoY).
  • 2026: +5,4–6% YoY.
• Free Nutritious Meals (MBG)
  • Beneficiaries: 60.2 million as of February 12, 2026. The target of 82.9 million beneficiaries is projected to be achieved in May–June 2026.
  • MBG Kitchen (SPPG): Number of SPPGs reach ~23 thousand per February 12, 2026. Meanwhile, ~14 thousand SPPGs are in the application process. Each SPPG employs ~50 workersso the total number of workers from ~30 thousand SPPGs has the potential to reach ~1.5 million.
• Red and White Village Cooperative and Fisherman’s Village
  • Target of ~30 thousand Red and White Village Cooperatives by 2026. The total target is ~80 thousand Red and White Village Cooperatives.
  • Red and White Village Cooperative will become an offtaker of agricultural and livestock products as well as a SPPG supplierthereby cutting the supply chain more efficiently.
  • Target ~1,000 fishing villages by 2026 and ~5,000 fishing villages by 2029.
• Investment
  • Target increase in investment realization +15.7% CAGR during 2025–2029driven by investment related to downstreaming.
  • Danantara’s major investment project in 2026 includes: 1) the ‘Wamena’ project in the field waste–to–energy worth IDR 84 T through the construction of waste-to-energy facilities in 33 cities; and 2) the ‘Johor’ project in the field agriculture worth IDR 84 T, in collaboration with Australia.
• Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM)
  • Focus on increasing oil and gas lifting with 3 initiatives namely: 1) implement technology for reactivation of old wells; 2) wells that are not managed by K3S are offered to private sector; and 3) work areas where exploration has been completed but have not yet been completed will be given an ultimatum threat of revoking concessions.
  • Import reduction initiativeslike reduce LPG imports with downstream coal becomes DME. Additionally, reduce import gasoline with 20% ethanol blending in 2028.
  • Continuing downstream with review the ban on crude exports other commodities, one of them tin.

Key Takeaway

The programs and a number of targets outlined are relatively in line with those previously announced by the government. We judge Execution of these programs is the key to realizing accelerated targeted economic growth.

📶 EXCL Records Net Loss of IDR 4.4 T for 2025

• $EXCL: XLSmart Telecom Sejahtera noted down net loss of IDR 1.8 T in 4Q25 (vs. 3Q25: net loss IDR 1.3 T, 4Q24: net profit IDR 503 B). This result makes net loss during 2025 will be IDR 4.4 T (vs. 2024: net profit IDR 1.8 T), compared to consensus 2025F estimate of ~IDR 3.9 T net loss. Increased quarterly losses in 4Q25 mainly caused by increased integration costs (+146% QoQ) and accelerated depreciation charges (+6% QoQ) post–merger. Revenue in 4Q25 itself was still growing to ~Rp11.9 T (+32% YoY, +4% QoQ), driven by a surge in ARPU to IDR 44.8 thousand (+8.7% YoY, +15.2% QoQ), reflecting the normalization of price competition in the industry. On the other hand, the number of customers decreases to 73 million in 4Q25 (+24.1% YoY, -8.3% QoQ), in line with the company’s strategy to focus on high-quality customer segments. The increase in revenue in 4Q25 made Realized income during 2025 will reach IDR 42.4 T (+23% YoY), in line with consensus 2025F estimates. For 2026, EXCL targets revenue growth in line with the industry and EBITDA growth of 2x revenue growth.
• $ASIA: Astra International noted car wholesalers as big as 34,867 units in January 2026 (+1% YoY, -15% MoM). Annual increase in January 2026 supported by Daihatsu which recorded wholesales of 12,513 units (+25% YoY, +5% MoM), while wholesales Toyota+Lexus fell -9% YoY and -24% MoM to 20,127 units. Market share ASII in January 2026 is at level 52,5% (vs. January 2025: 55.6%, December 2025: 43.5%).
• $SCMA: Operator shares of Surya Citra Media, Elang Mahkota Teknologi ($EMTK), bought ~2.7 billion shares of SCMA at average prices Rp. 281/sheet or a total value of ~Rp. 752.7 B on 10–11 February 2026. After this transactionEMTK’s direct ownership portion in SCMA increased from 70.39% to 74.02%.
• $OPEN: Operator Bukalapak shares as well as a subsidiary of Elang Mahkota Teknologi ($EMTK), PT Creative Media Karya, bought ~6.7 billion BUKA shares at average prices Rp. 139/sheet or a total value of ~Rp. 931.8 B on 10–11 February 2026. After this transactionthe portion of direct ownership of PT Creative Media Karya in BUKA increased from 34.05% to 40.55%.
• $MSIN: Bloomberg reports that MNC Digital Entertainment is considering listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Bloomberg sources said that discussions regarding the plan were still ongoing, including regarding the value and timing. MSIN has not yet commented on this news.
• $STICK: Jababeka Industrial Area through its subsidiaries, PT Likuid Nusantara Gas, officially operates a mini liquefied natural gas factory (LNG) worth US$16.9 million in the Pasuruan Industrial Estate Rembang area, East Java. The factory, which stands on ~1 hectare of land, operates as an LNG processing and distribution center with production capacity of 2.5 MMSCFD per daywith potential capacity expansion of up to 4 MMSCFD per day in 2H27.
• $PGEO: Pertamina Geothermal Energy targeting electricity production of 5,255 GWh during 2026 (+3,14% YoY). By segment, steam sales volume is estimated at 2,356 GWh (-1.1% YoY), while electricity sales volume is estimated at 2,899 GWh (+6.8% YoY). To support this plan, PGEO allocated capex of US$209.3 million in 2026 (vs. 2025 capex realization: US$105.5 million).
• $IRSX: Operator Folago Global Nusantara, PT Matra Tri Abadi, bought ~113.2 million shares of IRSX at average prices Rp. 570/share or a total value of ~Rp. 64.5 B on 12 February 2026. After this transactionPT Matra Tri Abadi’s direct ownership portion in IRSX increased from 56.98% to 58.8%.
• $LEAD: Logindo Samudrakamru announce that the company’s request to exercise the option extension of time period (extension option) on loan facilities A and B1 totaling ~US$16.5 million has been accepted by lenders. The extension of this loan facility is valid for a period of 1 year starting April 24 2026 until April 24, 2027.
• $GRPM: Graha Prima Mentari announce that operator company, Prima Multi Usaha Indonesia ($PMUI), and chief director company, Agus Susanto, has signed a non-binding agreement to sell 80% of GPRM shares to PT Tunas Binatama Lestaria company in the coal trading and mining sector as well as part of Rimau Group. The transaction value has not been announced because the transaction plan is still in the further negotiation stage. In information openness separated, Agus Susanto sold ~8.5 million GRPM shares at average prices Rp. 450/sheet on February 11 2026, so that its share of ownership in GRPM falls from 9.88% to 9.33%.

Top Gainer 🔥

$DEWA	$ENRG	$EARTH	$QUEEN
+9,73%	+9,64%	+8,15%	+4,28%

Top Loser 🤕

$SMGR	$EXCL	$SMILE	$PGAS
-5,94%	-5,32%	-4,23%	-4,05%

🔥 Another hot thing you need to know…

• Bloomberg reported that The Russian government has drawn up a proposal for economic cooperation with the US government, which includes the possibility of Russia returning to the transaction settlement system using the US dollar. Internal documents reviewed by Bloomberg state that there are 7 potential areas of cooperation between Russia and the US, including joint investment in the oil, natural gas, strategic raw materials and nuclear energy cooperation sectors. The plan is considered to mark a significant change in President Vladimir Putin’s economic policy, which previously sought to reduce dependence on the US dollar and strengthen ties with China.
• Brent oil prices fell -2.71% to US$67.52/barrel at the close of trading on Thursday (12/2), as concerns about supply disruptions eased in the middle US–Iran negotiation process which can last up to a month. US President Donald Trump said the US was working to reach a diplomatic agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a supply surplus of more than 3.7 million barrels per day during 2026 — which would be a record high on an annual average — and global inventories increase in 2025 at the fastest pace since the 2020 pandemic.
• Japan’s largest oil and gas producer, Inpex (TYO: 1605), estimate global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will grow +75% from current levels of 400 million tons per year to ~700 million tons per year in 2035Which potentially resulting in supply shortages in the Pacific coastal region, including Asia. Inpex estimates that the annual supply shortage in the Pacific coastal region will be 231 million tons in 2035, while the Atlantic coastal and Indian Ocean coastal regions are expected to experience an excess supply of 137 million tons and 56 million tons respectively.
• President of the Philippine Nickel Industry Association, Dante Bravo, said that Nickel ore exports from the Philippines to Indonesia could double from 15 million tonnes in 2025 to 30 million tonnes in 2026 along with cuts in nickel production quotas in Indonesia. The Philippines itself is the second largest nickel ore producer in the world after Indonesia, with production of ~65 million tons per year.
• Shareholders of IMC Pelita Logistik ($PSSI), Kendilo Pte. Ltd., bought ~65.7 million PSSI shares from PT Bio Permai at average prices Rp. 352/share or a total value of ~Rp. 23.1 billion on February 10, 2026. After this transaction, the direct ownership portion Kendilo Pte. Ltd. in PSSI rose from 26.91% to 28.12% while ownership PT Bio Permai fell from 7.35% to 6.14%.

🌟 The Influence of Ego on Trading and the “Indonesian Overthinking School”

“The problem is not in TP, but in ego. After TP and prices fly? That’s not a fault in the plan. That’s your ego being hungry.” — stocksahamharian

Interesting quotes from the Stockbit community this week

When our shares are rising, we will definitely consider the right time to take profit, aka TP. Maybe rationally, we should set a good rate. However, when we sell, the shares can rise drastically which makes us regret not holding longer. This phenomenon often occurs because of the ego and emotions of each of us, and Stockbitors stocksahamharian reminds us that the market is always neutral; and the noise is in each of our heads. Want to know how to respond more rationally to TP strategies? Take a look at the following article This!

A glance at daily stocks

User stocksahamharian has been active on Stream since 2025 and has attracted quite a lot of followers by regularly posting on Stream. His style is towards fast scalping with a focus on technical analysis to look for underrated stocks with the potential for high returns. Apart from sharing the results of his trade data, his posts on Stream often include scalping tips and advice for traders.