Toplines

The Kremlin is setting conditions to reject the Ukrainian and European peace plan drafts after it previously rejected key points of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan that overwhelmingly benefitted Russia. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated in a TV interview with Kremlin journalist Pavel Zarubin on December 14 that Russia has stated its position “very clearly” and that Russia will have “strong objections” if Ukraine and Europe make amendments to the peace plan.[1] Ushakov also stated that Russia will not accept provisions related to various “territorial issues,” including any discussions of a demilitarized “buffer” zone in Donbas.[2] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to a question from Zarubin about the possibility of Ukraine reneging on a peace agreement by demanding that Russia receives guarantees and a system for the implementation of any peace agreements.[3] Peskov also emphasized that the Kremlin is uninterested in reviewing the European position on the peace deal.[4] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov effectively rejected seven points of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan on December 11, including the original plan’s points on territorial swaps based on the line of contact and the provision of reliable security guarantees for Ukraine.[5]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US negotiators in Berlin,Germany on December 14 to continue negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner, and German Chancellor Frederich Merz met in berlin to discuss the 20-point peace plan.[6] Witkoff stated that negotiations will continue on December 15.[7] Ukrainian Presidential Communications Adviser Dmytro Lytvyn told Reuters that negotiations lasted for over five hours.[8]

Russian forces will likely continue to struggle to maintain the Kremlin’s desired multi-pronged offensive operations in different operational directions due to the long-term materiel and manpower costs of such operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian military officials have intensified exaggerated claims of advances across the frontline in recent weeks, namely focusing on the Vovchansk, Kupyansk, Siversk, Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, and Hulyaipole directions.[9] Putin notably implied on November 27 that Russian forces would quickly translate Russian advances near Hulyaipole to operational breakthroughs in the Zaporizhia direction.[10] Russia will need to generate and concentrate substantially more manpower and materiel on each of these directions to achieve tangible operational effects, or will alternatively have to selectively prioritize offensive efforts in one frontline area, which would come at the expense of the Kremlin’s information operations that aim to falsely portray russian forces as imminently collapsing the entire frontline.

Ukrainian military observer kostyantyn Mashovets assessed on December 13 that the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces (GoF), which operates in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions, will need to regroup or receive troops and materiel reinforcements from other operational directions in order to continue offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction.[11] Mashovets assessed that Russian forces are increasingly struggling to conduct simultaneous offensive operations in the 5th Combined Arms Army’s ([CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) area of responsibility (AOR) east and northeast of hulyaipole and in the 36th CAA’s (EMD) AOR in the Oleksandrivka direction. Mashovets stated that the Eastern gof’s troops and materiel are stretched along a wide frontline, which may complicate Russian forces’ further offensive operations unless the Russian military command narrows down the offensive zone near Hulyaipole or transfers additional resources from other operational directions. Mashovets assessed that Russian forces may redeploy some elements of the 36th CAA and the 29th CAA (EMD), which are currently operating in the Oleksandrivka direction.

Key Takeaways

* The Kremlin is setting conditions to reject the Ukrainian and European peace plan drafts after it previously rejected key points of the US-proposed 28-point peace plan that overwhelmingly benefitted Russia.
* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US negotiators in Berlin, Germany on December 14 to continue negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
* Russian forces will likely continue to struggle to maintain the Kremlin’s desired multi-pronged offensive operations in different operational directions due to the long-term materiel and manpower costs of such operations.
* Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia’s oil refining and military capabilities in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
* Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Hulyaipole direction.

Ukrainian Operations in The Russian Federation

Note: We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Dzhankoi, Crimea, and NASA FIRMS data indicates that there were fires at the oil depot in occupied Bitumne and at the Dzhankoi power substation.Militarnyi reported that the strikes against the power substation likely caused power outages in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts, and Russian occupation officials reported vast power outages in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. The Ukrainian SSO and the Ukrainian general Staff also reported that Ukrainian drones struck two command posts of the Russian 76th Airborne (VDV) Division; a 9С19 Imbir radar station; a Volna-2 electronic warfare (EW) station; and a first-person view (FPV) drone operator training center in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian TOR-M2 anti-aircraft missile system and a Russian drone lab in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian Offensive campaign Assessment – December 14, 2023

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on December 14 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked near and within Kupyansk; northwest of Kupyansk toward Monachynivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk toward Pishchane; and south of Kupyansk near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi on December 13 and 14. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked from Myrove, Radkivka (both northwest of Kupyansk), and Sobolivka (west of Kupyansk) and partially entered Kupyansk from the south.

The commander of a Ukrainian unmanned systems forces regiment operating in the Kupyansk direction reported on December 13 that Ukrainian forces detonated a pipeline on an unspecified date that Russian forces previously used to infiltrate northern outskirts of Kupyansk.

Order of battle: Drone interceptor operators of the Russian 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) are reportedly targeting Ukrainian heavy bomber drones in the Kupyansk direction. Elements of the 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) are reportedly operating in the Kupyansk direction.

Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported ground activity in the Borova direction on December 14.

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division (1st GTA) are striking Ukrainian positions east of Bohuslavka (northeast of Borova).

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Lyman direction on december 14 but did not advance.

Russian forces attacked northwest of Lyman near Serednie, Novoselivka, and Drobysheve; north of Lyman near Novyi Myr; northeast of Lyman near Kolodyazi; and east of Lyman near Zarichne on December 13 and 14.

A Ukrainian milblogger published footage on December 13 showing Ukrainian forces conducting Nemesis drone strikes on Russian servicemembers in the Lyman direction. The press service of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported on December 14 that Ukrainian drone operators are striking Russian forces in the forests near lyman.

A Russian milblogger claimed on December 13 that Russian forces targeted Slovyansk with Geran strike drones.

Order of Battle: Drone operators of the Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly striking ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), equipment, and positions in the Lyman direction.

Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign assessment, December 14, 2023

Summary: Russian forces continued offensive operations along multiple axes on December 14 but made only marginal gains. Fighting focused around kostyantynivka, Dobropillya, and Pokrovsk.

Key Takeaways:

* Kostyantynivka: Russian forces continued efforts to strike Ukrainian positions with unguided air bombs near Kostyantynivka. Units involved include detachments of the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), the 1219th and 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiments (both of the 20th Motorized rifle Division, 8th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]). FPV drone operators from the 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (20th Motorized Rifle Division) and the 58th Separate Spetsnaz Battalion (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], SMD) are actively targeting Ukrainian vehicles and communications.
* Dobropillya: Russian offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area continued on December 14 without confirmed advances. Attacks occurred east of Dobropillya near Shakhove and Nove Shakhove, toward Kucheriv Yar, and southeast of Dobropillya near Zapovidne. Elements of the Russian 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division) and the 174th Separate reconnaissance Battalion (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA) are operating in the area.
* Pokrovsk: Russian forces maintained offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction on december 14, but no confirmed advances were reported. Unconfirmed claims suggest Russian forces advanced in central Myrnohrad, north of Udachne, and in western Novopidhorodne. Attacks were reported near and within Pokrovsk, as well as in surrounding areas including Hryshyne, Rodynske, Bilytske, Svitle, Sukhetske, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, Udachne, and Molodetske. Ukrainian sources report a repelled Russian company-sized mechanized assault near Hryshyne on December 10, and a failed attempt to sever the O0525 highway. Drone operators of the 80th Sparta separate Reconnaissance Battalion and 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade are striking Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad, with the 5th motorized Rifle Brigade reportedly advancing south of Myrnohrad.
* Novopavlivka: Russian forces attacked near Novopavlivka itself, northeast of Novopavlivka near Novomykolaivka, and south of Novopavlivka near Dachne.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment – december 14,2023

Russian forces continued limited ground assaults in the Kherson direction on December 14 but did not advance. Russian forces reportedly continued fighting on the islands in the Dnipro River Delta, including Karantynnyi Island (west of Kherson City), on December 13 and 14. A Russian milblogger claimed on December 14 that Russian forces operating near Kherson City do not have enough unmanned surface vehicles (USV) to conduct naval operations in the Dnipro River Delta.

Order of Battle (Kherson & Orikhiv): First-person view (FPV) drone operators of the Russian 291st Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions near Orikhiv.Elements of the 7th Airborne (VDV) Division are reportedly operating towards Lukyanivske. Drone operators and other elements of the Russian 4th Military base (58th CAA) and the BARS-37 Detachment (Russian Combat Army Reserve) are reportedly striking Ukrainian drones and operating in the Orikhiv direction, respectively. Drone operators of the 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction. Drone operators of the 98th VDV Division are reportedly striking Ukrainian positions in Mykilske (northeast of Kherson City).

Russian Air,Missile,& Drone Campaign: Russian forces launched a drone and missile strike against Ukraine overnight on December 13 and 14. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile from Rostov Oblast and 138 Shahed-type, gerbera-type, and other strike drones from Oryol and Kursk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; Shatalovo, Smolensk oblast; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.ukrainian forces repelled 110 Russian drones in northern, southern, and eastern Ukraine, with missiles and 10 drones striking six locations. As of 0830 local time, approximately 18 Russian drones remained in Ukrainian airspace. Odesa Oblast Administration head oleh kiper reported that Russian forces damaged energy, transport, industrial, and civilian infrastructure in Odesa Oblast overnight. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces targeted a railway bridge Zatoka, southwestern Odesa Oblast, with FAB glide bombs equipped with unified gliding and correction modules (UMPCs) for the first time on December 14.

[1] dot ru/politika/25906721; https://t.me/zarubinreporter/4566
[2] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2025/
[3] dot ru/politika/25907927
[4] dot ru/politika/25907937
[5] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-11-2025/
[6] ; https://x.com/SEPeaceMissions/status/2000301101447516464
[7] https://x.com/SEPeaceMissions/status/2000301101447516464
[8] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-demands-dignified-peace-us-ukraine-officials-meet-berlin-2025-12-14/
[9] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-28-2025/
[10] dot ru/events/president/news/78571
[11] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3134
[12] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-3-2025/
[13] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-3-2025/
[14] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3135
[15] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/32563
[16] dot com/uk/news/drony-atakuvaly-afipskyj-npz-u-krasnodarskomu-krayi/; https://t.me/astrapress/99532
[17] dot com/uk/news/drony-atakuvaly-afipskyj-npz-u-krasnodarskomu-krayi/; https://t.me/astrap

Russian forces Intensify Attacks Near Lyman

Russian forces are currently focusing significant offensive efforts near Lyman, Donetsk Oblast. Recent reports indicate a notable increase in both the frequency and intensity of attacks in this sector. This push aims to regain lost territory and perhaps disrupt Ukrainian defense lines.

Fighting is particularly fierce around the settlements of Terny and Yampolivka.Russian troops are employing a combination of artillery, air strikes, and ground assaults, attempting to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.Ukrainian forces are reportedly holding the line, but the situation remains highly dynamic. [42]

Russian tactics involve concentrated artillery fire followed by infantry assaults. They’re also utilizing armored vehicles, though these have faced challenges due to Ukrainian anti-tank defenses. [43] Ukrainian sources highlight the effectiveness of their drone units in identifying and targeting Russian armor, inflicting significant casualties.

The Ukrainian military is responding with counter-artillery fire and localized counterattacks. Reports suggest the use of western-supplied artillery systems to target Russian command posts and ammunition depots. [44]

Russian sources claim to have made incremental gains, but these claims are arduous to independently verify. [45] The Russian Ministry of Defense reported capturing several Ukrainian strongpoints, but provided limited evidence. [46]

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Russian forces are attempting to exploit perceived weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense near Lyman. [49] They believe the offensive is intended to draw Ukrainian reserves away from other critical sectors of the front line.

Ukrainian sources are requesting increased ammunition supplies and reinforcements to bolster their defenses. [50] The situation underscores the ongoing need for sustained Western support to enable Ukraine to effectively resist Russian aggression. [48] and [51] provide additional visual confirmations of the intense fighting.