Cash Transfers Don’t Lead to Increased Injury or Death, Novel Study Finds

Direct cash payments to individuals, a growing trend in the United States, have faced criticism over concerns they might be spent on harmful substances, potentially leading to increased injury or death. However, a new 11-year study focusing on Alaska’s unique cash transfer program challenges these fears, finding no evidence to support them.

Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend: A Real-World Test

The research, published in the American Journal of Epidemiology, centered on Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD), which has provided annual payments to residents since 1982. The PFD offers a rare opportunity to study the effects of universal basic income on a statewide scale. Payment amounts typically range from $1,000 to $2,000 per person annually.

No Link Between Cash and Trauma

Researchers from New York University, the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) School of Medicine, and Alaska’s former chief medical officer analyzed data from 2009 through 2019. They examined records of traumatic injuries treated in Alaska hospitals and all reported deaths. The study found no association between the annual cash payments and an increase in serious traumatic injuries or deaths from unnatural causes in the short term. This held true even after multiple checks to ensure the robustness of the findings.

“Past research has shown that cash transfers are an effective tool for reducing poverty, but their implementation is often limited by critics who worry about irresponsible spending that can lead to tragedy,” says Sarah Cowan, NYU sociologist and founder of the university’s Cash Transfer Lab. “Those fears are unfounded. Our long-term study of a state’s population shows no connection between cash transfers and serious injury or death.”

Expert Perspective from Alaska’s Former Chief Medical Officer

Anne Zink, Alaska’s chief medical officer from 2019 to 2024 and now a senior fellow at the Yale School of Public Health, emphasized the importance of data-driven evaluation. “As a practicing emergency physician I worried about yearly PFD leading to immediate harm, but as Alaska’s chief medical officer and public health official, I know how vital it is to review the data objectively,” Zink stated. “This study provides the kind of population-level evidence that public health officials and policymakers demand when evaluating guaranteed income programs. When looking across the entire state’s population over 11 years, there was no evidence of increased trauma or mortality temporally associated with the PFD cash transfer.”

Study Stands Out for Scope and Duration

The authors note that this study distinguishes itself from previous research due to its comprehensive scope and extended timeframe. It reviewed every traumatic injury and death recorded statewide over 11 years and assessed a program encompassing an entire state’s population, offering a broader representation than most guaranteed income studies.

Implications for Future Programs

The findings suggest that concerns about short-term harm from cash payments are largely unfounded. This research provides strong evidence to support the implementation of similar cash transfer programs aimed at reducing poverty and improving financial stability.