China’s Nuclear Expansion and Alleged Testing Raise Global Concerns

China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, and recent allegations by the U.S. Government suggest potential violations of the global moratorium on nuclear testing. These developments are raising concerns about regional and global security, prompting scrutiny of China’s intentions and capabilities.

First Public Display of Nuclear Triad

In September 2025, China publicly displayed its nuclear triad – land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) – during a military parade in Beijing commemorating the 80th anniversary of the finish of the Second World War. Janes reports that the display included the Jinglei-1 (JL-1) ALBM, the Julang-3 (JL-3) SLBM, the Dongfeng-31BJ (DF-31BJ) and DF-61 ICBMs, and the DF-5C ICBM.

Allegations of a 2020 Nuclear Test

The U.S. Government has accused China of conducting a low-yield nuclear test in 2020. According to Christopher Yeaw, Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and Nonproliferation at the State Department, a seismic event detected in Kazakhstan originated at China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site. NPR reports that the event, registering 2.75 magnitude, is consistent with a nuclear explosion.

Expert Disagreement

Whereas the U.S. Asserts the event was a nuclear test, independent experts are divided. Ben Dando, head of seismology and verification at NORSAR, acknowledges the seismic signal is consistent with an explosion but notes its weakness and single-station detection limit conclusive confirmation. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization also stated that, with the available data, it is not possible to assess the cause of the events with confidence.

China’s Response

The Chinese government has vehemently denied the allegations, calling them “groundless” and accusing the U.S. Of fabricating pretexts for its own potential resumption of nuclear testing. NPR reported that Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian dismissed the accusations.

Expansion of China’s Nuclear Arsenal

China’s nuclear arsenal is undergoing significant expansion. While estimated at around 200 warheads in 2019, the Pentagon now estimates China possesses closer to 600 warheads, with a goal of reaching 1,000 by 2030. NPR details this rapid growth.

DF-31BJ: A Key Component

The DF-31BJ is a crucial element of China’s developing nuclear triad. The ODIN Asset describes it as a vital part of China’s land-based ICBM force, providing a reliable second-strike capability. The DF-31, with a range of 7,200–8,000 km (DF-31) and 13,200 km (DF-31A), is capable of reaching targets across Europe, Asia, and parts of North America. Wikipedia provides details on the missile’s specifications.

Continued Activity at Lop Nur

Satellite imagery reveals ongoing activity at China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site, including expansion of facilities and the construction of latest tunnels. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, suggests this indicates China is investing significantly in maintaining and potentially expanding its nuclear testing capabilities. NPR highlights this ongoing activity.

Implications for Arms Control

These developments come as the U.S. Also considers resuming nuclear testing. The situation raises questions about the future of arms control and the potential for a new nuclear arms race. The U.S. Government has expressed hope for negotiations with China and Russia, but is also considering adding to its own nuclear arsenal.