Ukraine’s Young Men Seek Refuge in Poland and Germany Amidst War

A recent policy change by the Ukrainian government, allowing men aged 18-22 to leave the country for the first time since the start of the war, has led to a significant increase in young Ukrainian men seeking opportunities and safety in neighboring Poland and Germany. Although framed as a chance for education and future contributions to Ukraine’s rebuilding efforts, the move has sparked debate and raised concerns about the country’s ability to maintain its fighting force.

Increased Exodus to Poland

Since August 2025, Ukraine has seen a surge in young men leaving the country. The Polish Border Guard reported that between September 2025 and the end of January 2026, 184,000 Ukrainian men aged 18-22 crossed the border into Poland. This represents a six-fold increase compared to the same period the previous year, indicating a clear trend of young Ukrainians taking advantage of the newly relaxed exit rules.

Motivations for Leaving

Interviews with young Ukrainian men now residing in Poland reveal a complex set of motivations. Many express a desire to avoid potential conscription when they reach the age of 25, having witnessed the devastating impact of the war firsthand. Vadym, a 22-year-old from Chernihiv now working in Poland, stated that without the opportunity to leave, he likely would have remained in Ukraine, but now intends to build a future abroad. Similarly, Maksym, a 21-year-old graphic student from Kyiv, prioritizes safety and economic opportunity in Poland while considering continuing his studies there.

The increasing frequency of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities is also a significant factor driving young men to seek refuge elsewhere. Vania, a 22-year-old cybersecurity graduate originally from occupied Lugansk, described the psychological toll of constant news of death and destruction.

Political Context and Concerns

The Ukrainian government has presented the policy change as a way to provide young men with educational and professional opportunities that will benefit the country’s reconstruction after the war. Although, some experts believe it was also a strategic move to appeal to younger voters ahead of potential post-war elections.

The influx of young Ukrainian men has drawn criticism from right-wing politicians in both Poland and Germany. Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder called on Kyiv to restrict the number of young men leaving Ukraine, arguing that they should be defending their homeland.

Ukraine’s Demographic Challenges and Military Needs

Ukraine’s armed forces currently number close to one million personnel, with approximately 300,000 deployed on the front lines. The country aims to increase its military to 800,000 personnel as part of any future peace settlement. However, Ukraine faces significant demographic challenges, including a declining birth rate and a shrinking population, which has fallen from around 51 million in the early 1990s to an estimated 28-35 million today. Marcin Jedrysiak, a Ukraine specialist at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, suggests that these demographic trends could lead to social divisions between those who remained in Ukraine during the war and those who left.

Looking Ahead

Despite the challenges, many young Ukrainians who have left the country maintain a strong connection to their homeland and express a desire to return once the war is over. Vania, who arrived in Poland four years ago, is already contemplating a return to his home city of Dnipro. The future of Ukraine will depend on its ability to address its demographic challenges and reintegrate those who have sought refuge abroad.