Dublin Central By-Election: McDonald Faces Test as Candidates Emerge

The upcoming Dublin Central by-election, scheduled for May 22nd, is shaping up to be a crucial contest for Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, testing her ability to secure a second seat in her constituency. The election was triggered by the departure of Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe. Alongside the Dublin Central vote, a by-election will too be held in Galway West.

Pressure on McDonald to Deliver

Political analysts suggest the by-election is “Mary Lou’s to lose,” with significant pressure on her to demonstrate her leadership and mobilize the Sinn Féin vote. According to Professor Theresa Reidy of University College Cork, securing a second seat in Dublin Central is vital for Sinn Féin’s aspirations to lead the government. “If they are going to lead government, they have to pick up second seats in constituencies like this and the by-election will test that proposition,” she stated.

Candidate Selection and Challenges for Sinn Féin

Even as Sinn Féin is the early favorite, the party has yet to finalize its candidate. Gillian Sherratt and Councillor Janice Boylan are contesting the selection convention. Sherratt is the mother of Harvey Morrison, who died after a lengthy wait for spinal surgery. Despite McDonald topping the poll in Dublin Central in 2024 with 19.5% of the vote, she failed to secure a second seat for her party, raising questions about the local organization’s strength.

In 2020, McDonald achieved 35.7% of the vote in Dublin Central, but the party did not run enough candidates to capitalize on that support and secure a second seat.

Social Democrats Mount Strong Challenge

The Social Democrats are actively campaigning, with Councillor Daniel Ennis as their candidate. The party has already distributed 23,000 leaflets and is confident in its chances, hoping to attract votes from those who supported Labour in the past, as Labour currently has no local councillors in the constituency. The party is buoyed by its strong performance in national polls.

Hutch’s Candidacy and Media Focus

Gerard ‘The Monk’ Hutch has announced his intention to run again, after receiving 9.5% of the vote in the 2024 general election. His candidacy is expected to attract significant media attention, potentially overshadowing other contenders. However, analysts predict Hutch will garner limited transferable votes, making a victory unlikely.

Some local representatives have expressed concern about the amount of media coverage Hutch received in 2024, describing the prospect of his continued run as “chilling” and indicative of a devaluation of the role of politicians.

Other Parties and Candidates

The Labour Party will hold its selection convention in early February, with Ruth O’Dea and Joanna Siewierska vying for the nomination. Fine Gael is expected to nominate Councillor Ray McAdam, the current Lord Mayor of Dublin. Fianna Fáil appears to have low expectations for the contest, with Senator Mary Fitzpatrick ruling herself out. The Green Party has selected Councillor Janet Horner, while People Before Profit-Solidarity is running Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin, and Aontú’s candidate is Ian Noel Smyth. Councillor Malachy Steenson is also running, and his transfers could potentially benefit Hutch.

Left-Wing Alliance

While a formal transfer pact among left-wing parties is not anticipated, there is general encouragement to vote and transfer votes within the left-leaning spectrum.