Fewer Competitive House Races Signal a Crisis for American Democracy
As the 2026 midterm elections approach, a troubling trend is emerging: fewer and fewer congressional districts are genuinely competitive. Experts attribute this decline to a combination of factors, including geographic self-sorting of voters, advancements in political mapping technology, and, most recently, aggressive mid-decade redistricting efforts. The result is a system where the vast majority of congressional seats are decided not by the broader electorate, but by primary voters—a group that is often more ideologically extreme and less representative of the general population.
The Shrinking Battleground
Currently, less than 5% of Americans will truly be deciding who controls the House of Representatives, according to David Wasserman, senior elections analyst for the Cook Political Report.1 Wasserman estimates only 18 out of 435 House races are considered toss-ups. This contrasts sharply with previous election cycles; during the same point in President Trump’s first term, 48 races were competitive.
The Unite America Institute highlights this “primary problem,” calculating that in 2024, just 7% of voters elected 87% of U.S. House races.
Redistricting’s Role
While the trend of declining competitiveness has been building for some time, mid-decade redistricting efforts have accelerated the process. In 2025 and 2026, lawmakers in several states redrew congressional maps, often with the explicit goal of creating more favorable districts for their party.1
President Trump urged Texas lawmakers to create five more Republican-leaning seats, while Democrats in California successfully bypassed the state’s independent redistricting commission to create five more favorable seats for their party. Similar efforts occurred in North Carolina, Missouri, Florida, and Virginia.1
Despite these changes, Wasserman notes that the redrawing of boundaries hasn’t created a pronounced advantage for either party. Instead, it has “eviscerated the competitive range of districts in which Americans have a real say over who controls Congress.” Even including races rated as “leaning” toward one party, only around 10% of the House is truly competitive.
The Problem with Primary Voters
The increasing dominance of primary voters raises concerns about the representativeness of Congress. Primary voters tend to be older, whiter, wealthier, more educated, and more ideologically extreme than the general public. This can lead to a Congress that is less responsive to the needs and concerns of the broader electorate.
Nick Troiano, executive director of Unite America, argues that this lack of competition will result in a less accountable Congress, regardless of which party wins in November.
Efforts at Reform
Some states have experimented with reforms to broaden primary participation. New Mexico now allows independent voters to participate in party primaries. However, other states, like Louisiana and West Virginia, have restricted primaries to registered party members.
In 2024, ballot measures aimed at creating nonpartisan primaries failed in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Oregon.
Looking Ahead
The trend toward less competitive congressional races is likely to continue, potentially exacerbating political polarization and undermining democratic accountability. Unless reforms are enacted to broaden participation and promote fairer districting, the voices of many Americans may continue to be marginalized in the electoral process. As Troiano warns, “if you think dysfunction and division is bad right now in Washington, it’s going to gain worse in the next congressional session as of the lack of competition in this year’s elections.”