Bitcoin Futures Signal Potential Bullish Reversal, Targeting $85,000

Recent shifts in the positioning of large speculators on CME Bitcoin futures suggest a possible bullish reversal for Bitcoin. After significantly reducing their bearish bets, non-commercial traders are now displaying a more optimistic outlook. This type of shift has historically preceded major price increases, notably in 2023 and 2025, raising the possibility of a rebound towards $85,000 in the coming weeks.

“Smart Money” Reduces Short Positions

According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report from the CFTC, non-commercial traders have reduced their net position to approximately -1,600 contracts, a substantial decrease from +1,000 contracts a month earlier. This indicates that large institutional players, such as hedge funds, have transitioned from a net short position to one more focused on buying. Analyst Tom McClellan believes this rapid reduction in short positions signals a bullish stance with a sense of urgency.

Similar reversals in CME futures have preceded significant low points in the past. In April 2025, a comparable reversal was followed by a roughly 70% rebound. In 2023, a similar pattern preceded an increase of over 190%.

Defending the 200-Week Exponential Moving Average

As of February 2026, this signal reappears as Bitcoin defends its 200-week exponential moving average, currently around $68,350. This technical level has historically acted as a floor during major bearish phases in 2015, 2018, and 2020.

Maintaining a position above the 200-week exponential moving average supports the hypothesis of a technical floor. Historically, contact with this average during a bear market has marked the end of the correction and the beginning of a recovery phase. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains in the oversold zone, suggesting a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure. A clear recovery from the 200-week moving average could pave the way for a move towards the 100-week moving average, positioned around $85,000.

This target represents a technical rebound within the current market structure and does not necessarily imply an immediate return to historic highs near $126,270.

Potential Risks and Alternative Scenarios

Tom McClellan cautions that the repositioning of “smart money” is a favorable condition, but not a definitive signal. Bitcoin could still experience a period of weakness before establishing a lasting bottom. A scenario similar to 2022 remains possible, where Bitcoin fell more than 40% after breaching its 200-week moving average, despite oversold indicators. A comparable drop in 2026 would bring the price back towards $40,000, approximately 60% below its all-time high.

Some analysts, including Kaiko, suggest Bitcoin could find a floor between $40,000 and $50,000, based on the logic of the four-year cycle. The market is currently at a critical technical inflection point, balancing the potential for a rebound towards $85,000 against the risk of a final capitulation before stabilization.

You can view live CME Bitcoin futures price charts and forecasts on TradingView and explore trader positioning data on CoinGlass. Further information on Bitcoin futures can be found on the CME Group website.