US Higher Education Faces Shifting Global Landscape, Turns to Transnational Education
The United States is navigating a changing landscape for international student recruitment, marked by declining market share and increased competition. As policy changes and affordability concerns impact traditional student flows, US institutions are increasingly exploring transnational education (TNE) as a strategy for maintaining global competitiveness and resilience.
Declining US Market Share
While the total number of internationally mobile students reached 7.3 million in 2025, according to UNESCO , the US share of this market has been shrinking. From 28% in 2001, the US held only 16% of the international student market in 2025, with further declines anticipated. This shift comes amidst a period of unprecedented policy changes and visa restrictions impacting international student mobility.
Focus on Inquiry Management and Conversion
Despite the enduring prestige of US academia and research, institutions are being urged to improve their outreach and conversion rates. Experts emphasize that the issue isn’t necessarily market conditions, but rather execution. UniQuest’s VP of Partner Success, Megan Prettyman, noted that North American institutions often lag behind counterparts in Australia, Modern Zealand and the UK in responding to inquiries and following up with prospective students . Improving conversion efficiency is seen as a key growth lever.
The Rise of Transnational Education (TNE)
As visa restrictions, policy uncertainty, and affordability constraints continue to challenge traditional study destinations, transnational education (TNE) is gaining prominence. QS executive director of the Americas, Ben Webb, hailed “the great pivot” towards TNE, envisioning “education without passports.” However, Kirsten Fedderson, IDP vice president of partnerships, cautioned against viewing TNE as a short-term fix, emphasizing the need for a long-term investment approach – a 20-year commitment to a market rather than a temporary solution.
The success of UK universities’ TNE strategies, with over 650,000 students enrolled in TNE programs – almost matching the number studying in the UK – serves as a model. Leaders are questioning whether US and Canadian institutions will participate in this growing trend.
Challenges in Graduate Enrollment
International graduate enrollment is facing unique challenges, with a 12% decline reported in 2025, while undergraduate levels grew by 2% . Recruitment at the graduate level is often decentralized, making it less adaptable to rapid policy changes. Graduate students, with shorter timelines, are particularly sensitive to political and economic circumstances.
Concerns were raised about applicants from Nigeria and Iran, impacted by previous travel restrictions. An IDP survey revealed that 40% of graduate students now have a worsened perception of the US, and 82% are considering multiple study destinations. The potential elimination of Optional Practical Training (OPT) opportunities also looms large, with 66% of graduate students indicating they would change or reconsider their study destination if OPT were eliminated.
Building Resilience Through Partnerships
Institutions are increasingly recognizing the importance of international partnerships. An IIE global partnerships survey found steady growth in the number and strength of these links, with institutions broadening their geopolitical portfolios and enhancing relationships with the Global South. The survey indicated a shift away from ceremonial agreements towards more strategic, multi-functional partnerships with greater accountability for outcomes.
Speakers emphasized the importance of using data and storytelling to demonstrate the value of these partnerships to stakeholders, including employers and governmental agencies.
US Withdrawal from UNESCO
The United States officially withdrew from UNESCO on December 31, 2026 . This decision, announced in July 2025, reflects concerns about UNESCO’s focus on divisive social and cultural causes and its alignment with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay expressed regret over the decision, noting that the organization had prepared for it by diversifying funding sources and undertaking structural reforms.