Middle East Conflict: Market Impact and Investment Strategies

On Saturday, February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a major joint military attack on Iran, resulting in the deaths of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Mohammed Pakpour . This action has triggered a volatile response, including missile and drone launches by Iran targeting U.S. Military facilities in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia . The situation has also prompted warnings to tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting shipping traffic and raising security concerns.

Impact on Global Energy and Commodities

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for approximately 20% of global oil exports and the majority of the world’s LNG shipments, is facing potential disruption . Any significant interruption could directly impact global energy supplies and commodity prices.

Gold

Geopolitical tensions typically drive investment towards safe-haven assets like gold. Spot gold experienced a jump of +2.7% on Monday, March 2, 2026, reaching US$5,419/oz, before settling at US$5,398/oz (+2.25%) .

Oil

Brent crude oil strengthened by +13.6% to US$82.4/barrel on Monday, March 2, 2026, before decreasing to US$78.6/barrel . OPEC+ has responded by increasing its quota by 206,000 barrels per day for April 2026 in an attempt to ease supply pressures. Even though, Saudi Aramco halted operations at the Ras Tanura refinery, which can process 550,000 barrels of crude oil per day, as a precautionary measure following drone attacks .

LNG and Coal

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz also affect LNG shipments, particularly to Asia, potentially increasing tanker rates and regional gas prices. Rising oil prices may also drive up the prices of substitute energy commodities, such as coal.

Stock Market Reactions

On Monday, March 2, 2026, the JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) weakened by -2.65%, although the energy sector showed strength, increasing by +1.54%, and several gold issuers saw gains of around +4–6%.

Key Takeaways

• Gold and oil commodities, especially crude oil and LNG, are initial beneficiaries during geopolitical escalation.
• The duration of any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz will significantly influence commodity prices and market sentiment.
• A prolonged disruption could lead to structural energy inflation and deeper negative sentiment.

Corporate News

Bakrie & Brothers (BNBR)

Bakrie & Brothers is targeting to raise IDR 4–6.5 trillion from a rights issue, with the final exercise price to be announced on March 9, 2026, to pay debts related to the acquisition of PT Cimanggis Cibitung Tollways.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)

Bank Rakyat Indonesia reported a net profit of IDR 3.7 trillion in January 2026, an 85% year-over-year increase.

Harita Jayaraya (NCKL)

PT Harita Jayaraya sold approximately 991 million NCKL shares, reducing its direct ownership portion in NCKL from 81.36% to 79.79%.

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA)

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia reported a net profit of IDR 1.59 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, the highest quarterly net profit for the year.

Sido Muncul (SIDO)

Sido Muncul reported a net profit of IDR 411 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing the total net profit for 2025 to IDR 1.2 trillion.