Russia Navigates US-Israel Strikes on Iran, Eyes Economic Gains
Moscow has condemned the recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran as a “dangerous adventure” and a potential catalyst for regional catastrophe, yet its response has been notably muted in terms of direct action. This apparent restraint is driven, in part, by the expectation of economic benefits stemming from continued instability in the Middle East, particularly in the energy markets.
Economic Opportunities for Russia
Experts suggest the Russian budget stands to gain from higher oil and gas revenues should the conflict in the region escalate. Increased production volumes and rising oil prices are anticipated to bolster revenue streams. A potential blockage of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global shipping, could drive oil prices above $100 per barrel [NBC Chicago]. This surge would diminish the discount currently applied to Russian Urals crude due to Western sanctions.
Crude oil prices rose to over $85 a barrel on Tuesday, February 28, 2026 – the highest level since July 2024 [NBC Chicago].
Expanding Markets and Gas Pipelines
Russia is also anticipating increased demand from China and India, both of which have recently reduced their purchases of Russian oil. Analysts estimate China could increase its oil imports from Russia by up to 500,000 barrels per day [NBC Chicago].
Regarding gas exports, the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines – routes through which Russian gas reaches Turkey and, subsequently, parts of Europe – are seen as having significant expansion potential. These pipelines currently operate at less than half their combined capacity of 47.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The conflict in Iran drove up European natural gas prices by 30 percent on Tuesday, and by more than 80 percent since the start of the strikes [Economic Times]. Price increases of this magnitude have not been seen since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Impact on Russia’s War Effort and Alliances
A significant portion of the Russian federal budget is allocated to the war in Ukraine, with approximately 180 billion euros planned for military spending, armaments, national security, and police forces – representing nearly 40 percent of total expenditure [NBC Chicago]. Russia relies on Iranian-supplied Shahed drones, missiles, and ammunition for its military operations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested Russia’s muted response to the strikes indicates a weakened alliance, stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin “talks but doesn’t act, which shows that he is a weak ally of the Iranians.” Zelenskyy also expressed concern about potential disruptions to Ukraine’s own weapons supplies, citing previous delays experienced during attacks on Iran in June of the previous year [RFE/RL].
Putin’s Perspective and Domestic Narrative
The attacks on Iran appear to have resonated with Russian President Vladimir Putin on a personal level. He condemned the killing of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei more strongly than the arrest of Venezuelan ally Nicolas Maduro earlier in the year [RFE/RL], potentially reinforcing his desire for a decisive victory in Ukraine. The situation also allows Putin to bolster his domestic and foreign policy narrative regarding the perceived dangers of Western hegemony.
Russian state media has amplified this narrative, with commentators accusing the U.S. Of acting like a “predator” and warning that Russia could be next [NBC Chicago].