Escalating Iran Conflict Tests German Foreign Policy and EU Influence

The recent escalation of conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is exposing the limited influence of the European Union and, specifically, Germany on the global stage. While the US asserts it has significantly degraded Iran’s military capabilities, and considers further action, Germany finds itself largely sidelined, struggling to define a meaningful role amidst the crisis.

US Claims of Military Success Against Iran

On March 3, 2026, US President Donald Trump claimed that his administration had “successfully knocked out” Iran’s air force and navy, asserting they had “no air force” and “no navy” remaining. These statements came as the US and Israel conducted strikes on Iranian territory, prompting retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Tehran against US and allied targets in the Gulf region. Trump attributed his decision to attack Iran to a premonition of an imminent Iranian strike, and suggested the US may have prompted Israel’s actions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated the US acted with knowledge of planned Israeli strikes, believing Iran would then target US facilities.

Germany’s Cautious Response and Limited Role

Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has condemned Iran’s actions but refrained from directly endorsing the US and Israeli strikes. Merz has characterized the Iranian regime as a “terror regime” responsible for oppression and supporting groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, stating a shared goal with the US and Israel to finish the “terror of these regimes.” However, he acknowledged the risks associated with military action and declined to offer a legal judgment on its justification.

Reports suggest Germany was not consulted by the US or Israel prior to the military strikes, highlighting its limited influence in the unfolding events. Merz’s calls for restraint from Iran are viewed by some as having little practical effect, given the current trajectory of the conflict.

EU’s Diminished Influence and Potential for Escalation

The situation underscores a broader trend of the European Union’s declining influence in global political affairs. The European Commission President has remained largely silent, a move some observers believe is prudent given the lack of a clear contribution the EU could make to de-escalation.

Iran has warned European countries that joining the US-Israeli campaign against it would be considered an act of war. This warning comes as European governments grapple with defining their role, balancing US requests for support with fears of being drawn directly into the conflict. Retaliatory Iranian attacks have already targeted military bases housing European soldiers, prompting France to increase its military presence in the region.

Germany Considering Joining Campaign

Germany is reportedly seriously considering joining the US-Israeli campaign against Iran if Tehran does not cease attacks on countries in the region.

Implications for International Law and Global Order

The conflict raises fundamental questions about international law and the assertion of power by stronger nations. The US’s decision to engage in military action, after previously stating a desire to avoid war, challenges its credibility. Germany’s tacit acceptance of military intervention to overthrow foreign governments, through its expressions of support for Israel, risks undermining its own standing and providing justification for actions by other nations, such as Russia’s ongoing actions in Ukraine.