Oscar Upsets and Surprises: Will ‘Sinners’ Spoil ‘One Battle After Another’s’ Night?

The 98th Academy Awards are set to take place in Los Angeles on March 15, 2026, and the race for Oscars is proving to be one of the most suspenseful in recent memory. Throughout the awards season, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” consistently received top honors from organizations like the Golden Globes, the Producers Guild Awards, the BAFTAs, and the Directors Guild Awards. However, a surprising win for “Sinners” at the Actor Awards has injected new uncertainty into the Best Picture category and beyond.

Michael B. Jordan’s Upset Win

Michael B. Jordan’s victory for Best Actor at the Actor Awards for his performance in “Sinners” was a significant upset, defeating the widely favored Timothée Chalamet for his role in “Marty Supreme.” While Chalamet had previously won the Golden Globe for his performance, reports surfaced suggesting some industry fatigue with the actor’s publicity efforts. A clip of Chalamet making dismissive comments about ballet and opera performances as well drew criticism, potentially impacting his momentum, though the controversy arose after Oscar voting had closed.

Jordan’s strong acceptance speech, in which he thanked his mother for her support in getting him to auditions, has positioned him as a frontrunner in the Best Actor category.

Potential for Further Surprises

While “One Battle After Another” remains the likely winner for Best Picture, “Sinners” could potentially pull off further upsets. The race for Best Supporting Actress is also tight, with Wunmi Mosaku’s BAFTA win adding her to the mix alongside Teyana Taylor (a Golden Globe winner for “One Battle After Another”) and Amy Madigan (an Actor Award winner for “Weapons”).

The Best Supporting Actor category is equally unpredictable, with Stellan Skarsgård (Golden Globe winner), Sean Penn (BAFTA and Actor Award winner), and Benicio del Toro all receiving significant recognition. A win for Delroy Lindo, a veteran actor receiving his first Oscar nomination at age 73, would also be a compelling outcome.

If Lindo and Mosaku were to win in the supporting categories, it could significantly jeopardize “One Battle After Another’s” chances for Best Picture and Best Director.

Final Oscar Predictions (March 11, 2026)

• Best Picture: “One Battle After Another”
• Best Director: “One Battle After Another”
• Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)
• Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”)
• Best Supporting Actress: Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”)
• Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn
• Best Adapted Screenplay: “One Battle After Another”
• Best Original Screenplay:
• Best Animated Feature: “KPop Demon Hunters”
• Best Costume Design: “Frankenstein”
• Best Animated Short Film: “Butterfly”
• Best Documentary Short Film: “All the empty rooms”
• Best Live Action Short Film: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
• Best Sound:
• Best Cinematography:
• Best Film Editing:
• Best Documentary Feature:
• Best International Feature Film:
• Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
• Best Production Design:
• Best Original Song:
• Best Visual Effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
• Best Casting:

The Academy Awards promise to be a thrilling culmination of the awards season, with several categories poised for unexpected results.