2026 Oscars Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win
The Academy Awards season is a lengthy and often exhausting process. Yet, it encourages investment in stylistically challenging projects, a vital component of Hollywood’s artistic ecosystem. This year, the 90th Academy Awards ceremony, delayed due to the Winter Olympics, promises a competitive night, particularly with strong contenders like One Battle After Another and Sinners leading the pack. Conan O’Brien will host the broadcast, which begins on ABC and Hulu at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Jessie Buckley has been the frontrunner since Hamnet premiered at the Telluride Film Festival. The period romantic drama is likely to be recognized in this category, and Buckley embodies the type of rising star the Academy often rewards.
Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Who Ought to Win: Rose Byrne
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
This is expected to be one of the night’s most competitive categories. The race appears to be between Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan. Both actors have helped bring original features to fruition through their operate with up-and-coming auteurs. Jordan has gained momentum in recent weeks, following a win at the Actor Awards.
Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
Who Ought to Win: Wagner Moura
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Amy Madigan is currently favored, benefiting from a comeback narrative and her esteemed veteran status. However, Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku are also strong contenders.
Who Will Win: Amy Madigan
Who Ought to Win: Teyana Taylor
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Sean Penn has gained momentum recently, but Stellan Skarsgård could emerge as a winner as a career acknowledgment.
Who Will Win: Sean Penn
Who Ought to Win: Benicio del Toro
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Robert Kaplow (Blue Moon); Jafar Panahi, Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian (It Was Just an Accident); Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme); Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value); Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Ryan Coogler is the frontrunner for this award, poised to receive his first Oscar in what promises to be a significant career.
Who Will Win: Ryan Coogler
Who Ought to Win: Ryan Coogler
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Will Tracy (Bugonia), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell (Hamnet), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Train Dreams)
Paul Thomas Anderson is the likely winner for his adaptation of One Battle After Another, praised for its blending of tones and masterful execution.
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Ought to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Director
Nominees: Chloe Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Paul Thomas Anderson is the favorite, considered overdue for a win after numerous nominations.
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Ought to Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
One Battle After Another has been the presumed winner throughout awards season, amassing numerous accolades. While Sinners remains a strong contender, One Battle After Another has not been deterred from winning major prizes.
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another
Who Ought to Win: One Battle After Another