Fitch Affirms Italy’s ‘BBB+’ Rating, Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Italy’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BBB+’ with a Stable Outlook, as of March 13, 2026. This confirmation reflects Italy’s large, diversified, and high value-added economy, as well as its institutional and financial stability.

Rating Upgrade History and Fiscal Performance

This affirmation follows an upgrade from ‘BBB’ to ‘BBB+’ in September 2025, driven by improved fiscal performance and political stability [Reuters]. Fitch cited improved fiscal resilience and a track record of prudent budget management as key factors in the upgrade.

Key Factors Supporting the Rating

• Fiscal Resilience: Italy is expected to outperform its official budget deficit target of 3.3% in 2026, projecting a deficit of 3.1% of GDP [Yahoo Finance].
• Debt Reduction: Italy’s debt has decreased by over 20 percentage points between 2020 and 2024, returning to pre-pandemic levels faster than anticipated.
• Commitment to Fiscal Targets: Italian authorities are committed to reducing the deficit to 2.6% by 2027 and below 2% by 2029, aligning with Fitch’s forecasts.
• Economic Growth: Fitch forecasts economic growth of 0.6% in 2025, accelerating to an average of 0.8% in 2026-2027.
• Improved External Position: The current account surplus reached 1.1% of GDP in 2024 and is expected to be maintained through 2027. The net international investment position has improved to a record-high surplus of 15.3% of GDP at the complete of 2024.

Debt Levels and Financing Risks

Despite debt levels remaining higher than peers (the ‘BBB’ median was 57.3% in 2024), Fitch notes reduced financing risks as Italy’s spread to core eurozone economies continues to narrow. Fitch projects debt will increase modestly from 135.3% of GDP in 2024 to 137.5% in 2026 before declining by around 1 percentage point annually to reach 134% by 2030 [Yahoo Finance].

Recent Confirmation and Outlook

As of March 14, 2026, Fitch has confirmed the ‘BBB+’ rating with a Stable Outlook [Corriere della Sera]. The rating is underpinned by Italy’s economic strengths and stability, though attention remains on managing the budget deficit.