Argentine Economist Di Stefano Predicts Dollar Volatility and Advocates for Peso Investments

The Argentine peso’s value is increasingly influenced by global factors, including the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on international trade, according to economist Salvador Di Stefano. Although Argentina maintains monetary stability due to strong agricultural exports and foreign currency inflows, Di Stefano cautions against short-term savings in U.S. Dollars, predicting significant volatility in the coming months.

Dollar Fluctuations and Export Competitiveness

Recent market activity saw the unofficial (“blue”) dollar fall to 1,390 Argentine pesos for purchase and 1,415 for sale on Friday, February 14, 2026, according to Infobae, remaining below the official wholesale rate of 1,400 pesos. Di Stefano, known as the “Blue Guru,” warns that a drop below 1,350 pesos could jeopardize the competitiveness of Argentina’s energy and agricultural exports.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Dollar Outlook

Di Stefano advises caution for those considering dollar investments in the short term, stating, “They are going to go from here to China.” He notes that individuals who purchased dollars before the recent legislative elections experienced significant losses. He anticipates continued dollar volatility for the next six months, but predicts the exchange rate will finish the year at 1,750 pesos.

Investment Recommendations

Currently, Di Stefano recommends Argentine dollar-denominated bonds yielding 10% as the most attractive investment option. He also highlights the potential for growth in the corn market, suggesting investors consider purchasing corn seed for the next planting season, citing low stock-consumption ratios and strong demand from exporters.

Global Factors and the Strengthening Dollar

The global strength of the U.S. Dollar is being driven by investor flight to safety amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. The dollar index rose 0.8% to 100.50 units on February 14, 2026, reaching its highest level since mid-May, with a weekly increase exceeding 1.5%. Infobae reports that the United States, as a net oil exporter, is relatively shielded from energy shocks, unlike Europe and Japan, which are heavily reliant on energy imports.

Di Stefano’s Overall Assessment

Di Stefano believes Argentina is “ordering itself” and experiencing a more balanced economic environment under the current government, with reduced inflation, lower taxes, and a greater role for the private sector. He points to a fiscal surplus, capitalization of the Central Bank, reduced debt, and fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate anchors as positive developments. According to the analyst, Argentina is gaining a reputation for sound economic management.