Undercounted COVID-19 Deaths: New Study Reveals Significant Disparities

New research indicates the early COVID-19 death toll in the United States was substantially higher than officially reported, with significant disparities among racial and ethnic groups. A study published in Science Advances estimates up to 155,000 additional deaths likely went uncounted in 2020 and 2021, representing approximately 16% of all COVID-19 deaths during that period. STAT News and The Washington Post reported on the findings.

Disparities in Uncounted Deaths

The study pinpointed that the unrecognized deaths were disproportionately among Hispanic individuals and other people of color. These deaths were likewise more prevalent in the early months of the pandemic and concentrated in Southern and Southwestern states, including Alabama, Oklahoma, and South Carolina.

Challenges in Accurate Death Counting

Several factors contributed to the undercounting. While hospitalized patients were routinely tested for COVID-19, individuals who fell ill and died outside of hospitals often lacked testing, particularly in the early stages of the pandemic when at-home testing was limited.

The study also highlighted issues within the death investigation system. In some areas, death investigations are conducted by coroners without specialized medical training. Research suggests that political beliefs may have influenced both testing practices and post-mortem testing by coroners, with some families reportedly pressuring coroners not to list COVID-19 as a cause of death.

The Role of Machine Learning

Researchers utilized machine learning to analyze death certificate data. They examined records of infected patients who died in hospitals to establish patterns, then applied those patterns to evaluate death certificates of individuals who died outside hospitals and were attributed causes like pneumonia or diabetes. Steven Woolf, a researcher at Virginia Commonwealth University, described the team’s use of machine learning as “intriguing.”

Official COVID-19 Death Toll and Past Controversies

As of today, March 19, 2026, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports more than 1.2 million deaths from COVID-19 in the United States since the start of the pandemic. The accuracy of this count has been a subject of debate, with past false claims circulating on social media alleging inflated numbers. Former President Donald Trump previously shared a post claiming only 6% of reported deaths were actually from COVID-19, a claim that was later deleted by Twitter.

Beyond Direct COVID-19 Deaths

It’s important to note that the pandemic also resulted in deaths indirectly related to the virus. Individuals with other medical conditions died due to lack of access to care as hospitals were overwhelmed, and there was a rise in drug overdose deaths linked to social isolation and disrupted treatment access.

Looking Ahead

The findings underscore the need for improvements in the nation’s death investigation system and highlight ongoing health disparities. Addressing these issues is crucial to ensure accurate public health data and equitable access to care for all populations.