EU Faces Growing LNG Dependence on US Amidst Trade Concerns

The European Union is increasingly reliant on the United States for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, a shift that began after reducing dependence on Russian gas following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Whereas initially intended to enhance energy security, this growing dependence is raising concerns about potential geopolitical vulnerabilities and the possibility of the EU missing its gas demand reduction commitments. Recent rhetoric from the US, suggesting a link between trade agreements and continued access to favorable LNG supplies, has further amplified these anxieties.

From Russia to the US: A Rapid Shift in Supply

Prior to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia was a significant gas supplier to the EU. Between 2021 and 2025, EU imports of Russian gas – including pipeline gas and LNG – fell by 75%. This dramatic reduction prompted a search for alternative sources, with the US quickly emerging as the primary supplier. In 2024, the US exported 11.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG, remaining the world’s largest LNG exporter. As of 2025, the US already supplies 55% of the EU’s LNG, and is also the EU’s largest oil supplier, providing 17% of all EU imports.

Rising US LNG Share and Future Projections

The trend towards greater US LNG dependence is projected to continue. If the EU fulfills its current supply deals with the US and fails to meet its gas demand reduction targets, the bloc could source 75-80% of its LNG imports from the US by 2030, up from 57% in 2025. This could represent 40% of the EU’s total gas and LNG imports, compared to 27% in 2025.

Concerns Over Geopolitical Dependency and Affordability

Experts warn that overreliance on US LNG, which is often the most expensive option for EU buyers, contradicts the EU’s REPowerEU plan. This plan aimed to enhance energy security through diversification, demand reduction, and affordability. The potential for a new geopolitical dependency on the US raises concerns about the EU’s strategic autonomy and its ability to negotiate favorable energy terms. U.S. LNG exports to other EU countries and the UK decreased by 24% (1.7 Bcf/d) in 2023, due to lower natural gas consumption and high storage inventories following a mild winter.

US Trade Pressure and EU Response

Recent statements from the US government, linking continued access to favorable LNG supplies to the implementation of a broader trade agreement, have heightened tensions. This approach has been interpreted by some as a form of pressure on the EU to concede on trade negotiations. The EU has legally binding agreements to prohibit all LNG and pipeline gas imports from Russia by the end of 2026 and autumn 2027, respectively.

Looking Ahead

The EU faces a complex challenge in balancing its energy security needs with its strategic goals of diversification, and affordability. Reducing gas demand, investing in renewable energy sources, and fostering alternative LNG supply relationships will be crucial to mitigating the risks associated with over-dependence on US LNG. The outcome of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and the EU will also play a significant role in shaping the future of Europe’s energy landscape.