Denmark Braces for Tight Election as Kingmaker Rasmussen Holds the Cards
Denmark heads to the polls on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, in an election poised to be exceptionally close. While incumbent Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats are projected to win the most votes, the outcome hinges on the centrist Moderate Party, led by Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who could develop into a kingmaker in forming the next government.
Frederiksen’s Tightrope Walk
Mette Frederiksen, who has served as Denmark’s prime minister since 2019, called for early elections initially slated for later in the year. Despite a recent boost in popularity following a dispute with the United States over Greenland, her party is facing a potentially historic low in support, polling at 21% . Frederiksen has warned voters that supporting Rasmussen could pave the way for a right-wing government .
Rasmussen’s Pivotal Role
Lars Løkke Rasmussen, a former prime minister, now leads the Moderate Party, projected to secure approximately 12 seats in the 179-seat parliament . This position grants him significant leverage, allowing him to either support Frederiksen in forming another centrist coalition or to align with Deputy PM Troels Lund Poulsen, leader of the center-right Venstre party and potentially usher in a right-wing government.
Immigration as a Key Issue
Immigration remains a central theme in the Danish election campaign. Rasmussen has suggested the country needs around 90,000 full-time employees by 2030, while Frederiksen has emphasized the importance of controlling the number of foreign workers, particularly from North Africa and the Middle East . A recent poll revealed that 35% of Danes believe immigration from non-Western countries should be stopped, even if it negatively impacts the Danish economy, while 39% disagree .
A Complex Political Landscape
The election follows a period of unusual political alignment. Frederiksen’s Social Democrats have governed in coalition with Venstre and Rasmussen’s Moderates for the past four years. Yet, with all three governing parties facing potentially their worst election results in modern times, the political landscape is highly uncertain . Up to twelve parties could be elected to the Folketing, given the 2% blocking limit .
The Royal Examiner and Government Formation
Following the election, King Frederik will task a “royal examiner” – typically the person with the most mandates – with forming a government. This process mirrors the system in Norway, though Denmark’s electoral system allows voters to vote for individual candidates as well as parties . The Moderates’ central position and Rasmussen’s preference for a government “over the middle” suggest he may be reluctant to align with more extreme parties.
The Role of the Faroe Islands and Greenland
The four mandates held by the Faroe Islands and Greenland could prove decisive in securing a majority, as they have in past elections . The outcome of the election remains highly uncertain, setting the stage for a potentially protracted period of negotiations and political maneuvering.
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