Ryanair CEO Signals Stabilizing Jet Fuel Supply in Europe—But Summer Travel Risks Remain

Europe’s aviation sector is breathing a cautious sigh of relief as concerns over jet fuel shortages ease, though lingering geopolitical tensions and rising costs continue to cast a shadow over the peak summer travel season. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, speaking at the Norges Bank Investment Management annual conference in Oslo on April 28, 2026, indicated that the risk of supply disruptions has receded—at least through June—thanks to increased production from alternative sources and stabilizing oil markets.

Yet, while the immediate threat of fuel shortages appears to have diminished, O’Leary warned that the broader impact of the Iran conflict, coupled with soaring jet fuel prices, could still disrupt travel plans and push some airlines to the brink of collapse.

Fuel Supply Risks Ease, But Not Eliminated

Just weeks ago, airlines were bracing for potential fuel shortages as early as mid-May, with suppliers initially guaranteeing shipments only through that period. However, O’Leary now says the outlook has improved, citing stronger fuel availability over the past three weeks. Production from the U.S., North Africa, and Norway has helped offset reduced volumes from the Middle East, where the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments—remains restricted due to ongoing hostilities.

“The oil companies are now indicating there may be no risk of supply disruption through the start or middle of June,” O’Leary stated. This marks a notable shift from earlier warnings, when Ryanair and other carriers were preparing for potential rationing or flight cancellations.

Despite the improved short-term outlook, O’Leary emphasized that the situation remains fluid. “While we’re less concerned than we were two weeks ago, the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, and oil prices are hovering above $100 a barrel,” he said. “If the conflict drags on, we could still see volatility in supply and pricing.”

The UK’s Vulnerability to Fuel Shortages

Among European nations, the UK is particularly exposed to potential fuel shortages due to its heavy reliance on jet fuel imports from Kuwait. O’Leary highlighted that Kuwait supplies roughly 25% of the UK’s jet fuel, making it the most vulnerable country in Europe if Middle Eastern supply routes remain disrupted.

“Of all the European countries at the moment, the one that is most vulnerable is the UK due to the fact that of the market share that the Kuwaitis have here,” O’Leary said. “There could be a surplus of jet A-1 fuel in the Middle East, but you’ve still got to ship it to Europe—and we don’t know when or how that happens.”

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently reported that jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the onset of the Iran conflict, with the average price per barrel exceeding $195—far above pre-war levels. This surge has already forced some airlines to cancel flights or pass costs onto passengers through higher fares.

Summer Travel Demand Shows Signs of Hesitation

While April and May bookings remain strong, O’Leary noted that travelers are growing more cautious about committing to summer trips, particularly for June through August. “We think there’s a lot of people waiting,” he said, suggesting that uncertainty over the Iran conflict and rising costs are causing consumers to delay booking decisions.

This hesitation could have significant implications for airlines, many of which are already grappling with higher operating costs. O’Leary warned that if fuel prices remain elevated, “two or three” European airlines could face bankruptcy—a stark reminder of the industry’s fragility in the face of geopolitical and economic shocks.

What’s Next for Airlines and Travelers?

The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the current stability in fuel supply holds. If the Iran conflict de-escalates and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the risk of shortages could dissipate entirely. However, if tensions persist, airlines may be forced to take drastic measures, including flight cancellations or surcharges on already-booked tickets.

For travelers, the message is clear: while the immediate threat of widespread cancellations has eased, the risk of higher fares and last-minute disruptions remains. Those planning summer trips may want to book sooner rather than later—or brace for potential changes to their itineraries.

Key Takeaways

• Short-term relief: Jet fuel supply risks in Europe have eased through June, with increased production from the U.S., North Africa, and Norway helping to offset Middle Eastern disruptions.
• UK at highest risk: The UK is the most vulnerable European country to fuel shortages due to its reliance on Kuwait for 25% of its jet fuel supply.
• Prices remain elevated: Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the start of the Iran conflict, averaging over $195 per barrel.
• Traveler hesitation: While April and May bookings are strong, consumers are delaying summer travel plans due to uncertainty over the conflict and rising costs.
• Industry warnings: Ryanair’s O’Leary has cautioned that some European airlines could face bankruptcy if fuel prices do not stabilize.

FAQ

Could my flight be canceled due to fuel shortages?

While the risk of widespread cancellations has decreased, airlines may still cancel select flights if fuel supply issues worsen. Ryanair has previously indicated that a 10-25% reduction in fuel supply could force such measures.

Will airfares increase because of the fuel crisis?

Many airlines are already passing higher fuel costs onto passengers. IATA has noted that carriers in some regions are raising fares to offset the surge in jet fuel prices.

What should travelers do to protect their bookings?

Travelers concerned about potential disruptions may want to book flights sooner rather than later, as last-minute changes could become more likely if the situation deteriorates. Purchasing travel insurance could provide some protection against cancellations or delays.

How long will the fuel supply remain stable?

Current projections suggest stability through June, but the situation could change rapidly depending on developments in the Iran conflict and global oil markets. Airlines and fuel suppliers are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a critical bottleneck for global oil shipments.