Geologic Coincidence Drives Unreported Uranium Exports
The presence of uranium in DRC mineral exports is not the result of smuggling or illicit mining operations, according to the study. Instead, it stems from a natural geologic overlap in the mineral-rich Copperbelt of southern Congo, which supplies roughly 70% of the world’s cobalt.
Millions of years ago, rainwater carried uranium away from concentrated deposits such as the historic Shinkolobwe mine, which served as the primary uranium source for the United States Manhattan Project between 1942 and 1947. As the uranium migrated through the region, it was adsorbed—or grabbed hold of—by heterogenite, the primary mineral mined for cobalt. Because uranium and cobalt occur together in the rock and react identically during chemical processing, separating them prior to export is exceptionally difficult.
Scale of the Nuclear Material Risk
By combining geological maps with facility-level ore processing records and chemical behavior models, researchers estimated that thousands of tonnes of natural uranium left the DRC unmonitored over a 24-year period. According to calculations published in the research, less than 10% of this material was publicly declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which maintains global uranium safeguards and accountancy.
The study calculates that the volume of undeclared uranium leaving the country could, if fully processed, supply material for roughly 600 to 1,500 nuclear weapons. Alternatively, the material could fuel a standard light-water nuclear reactor for 10 to 25 years. Most of these cobalt-hydroxide shipments were exported directly to China, which dominates the global cobalt market.
Regulatory Response and Official Probes
In response to the findings published in July 2026, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo launched an official probe to test outgoing cobalt shipments for hidden uranium content. Congolese authorities also initiated consultations with the International Atomic Energy Agency to address the supply chain blind spot.
While the Shinkolobwe mine has been officially closed to excavation since 2004, the new findings demonstrate that modern industrial processing of secondary cobalt deposits inadvertently moves significant quantities of nuclear-sensitive material across international borders without standard oversight.
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