Global oil prices retreated for a third day on Friday, September 18, 2026, as markets reassessed supply risks following initial panic over attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure. Brent crude futures fell 33 cents, or 0.31%, to $104.49 a barrel by 1411 GMT, according to Reuters, after hitting a session low of $101.92. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 88 cents, or 0.86%, to $102.79 a barrel, though WTI had earlier dipped to a session low of $99.39.
Infrastructure Damage and Export Impact
The recent price volatility was triggered by an attack last week that damaged three pumping stations serving Saudi Arabia’s vital East-West Pipeline—one more than initially assessed, according to satellite imagery and three industry sources cited by Reuters. Crude loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export hub of Yanbu faced suspension, prompting Riyadh to cancel some deliveries to Europe. Bloomberg News reported that state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco informed at least two European refining customers they would receive no crude oil next month.
Despite the severity of the infrastructure damage, prices have cooled from earlier four-month highs due to reports that Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore roughly half the capacity of its East-West oil pipeline within days. Sources speaking to Reuters provided varying estimates regarding the exact timeline required to fully normalize crude flows through the corridor.
Strait of Hormuz and Geopolitical Tensions
Transportation through key regional choke points remains precarious amid an ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, who exchanged fresh border strikes on Thursday. Preliminary shipping data from Friday showed only four commodities vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, falling well below the 10-day average of approximately 16 ships.
UBS energy analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that oil prices continue to find underlying support from these persistent Middle East hostilities. “Oil prices are being supported by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with tankers being targeted in the Strait,” Staunovo told Reuters. Similarly, Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, emphasized that market stabilization depends heavily on shipping predictability. “The key question is whether physical flows can normalise and what the timeline could be. If we see a sustained improvement in Hormuz traffic, some of the geopolitical premium can unwind further,” Sachdeva said.
Inventories and Global Supply Factors
Ample product inventories and rising exports from other nations have helped offset immediate supply anxieties. Chinese customs data released Friday showed that refined oil product exports in August rose 12.7% year-on-year, with jet fuel exports hitting a record high as refiners capitalized on strong overseas margins. Concurrently, a Morgan Stanley note reported that global refined product stocks grew by 3.7 million barrels last week, driven by inventory builds in the West and Singapore.
Diplomatic efforts to address the broader conflict remain stalled, with the US and Iran holding no formal peace talks since the collapse of an interim agreement in June. The ongoing war is scheduled for discussion at the United Nations General Assembly the following week, where an Iranian delegation is expected to attend, according to the US State Department.
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