Super El Niño Could Cause Over 450,000 Deaths, Scientists Warn

Global South Bears the Heaviest Mortality Burden

Developing nations in the Global South will face the vast majority of the heat-related fatalities, according to the Climate Impact Lab findings. Researchers project that 239,000 of those deaths will occur in the initial six-month window of the forecast.

The Sahel region in Africa—encompassing Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad—faces the most severe impact. The Sahel will experience 66,800 additional heat deaths compared to a normal year. Across specific countries, the report projects 31,400 deaths in Nigeria, 19,300 in Indonesia, 17,500 in Sudan, 15,800 in India, and 13,300 in Brazil.

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the research group and co-author of the study, explained that extreme heat poses the greatest danger in locations that are already hot and possess fewer economic resources. Wealthier regions generally maintain better access to air conditioning, reliable water supplies, and functioning health systems.

Amplification from Human-Caused Climate Change

While El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that warms surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, this year’s event is developing on a planet already warmed by human-caused climate change. Researchers project that global land temperatures will climb 1.2°C (2.1°F) above normal during the coming months.

The study characterizes the unusually warm global temperatures as a preview of future climate conditions. “While they feel anomalous now, they will become normal just a few decades into the future,” the researchers warned. Greenstone added that the temperature dangers will likely persist beyond February, with weather fallout extending into the following summer.

Mitigation Strategies and Preparedness Challenges

To curb preventable fatalities, the report urges governments to implement targeted interventions such as heat-warning systems, cooling centers, hydration stations, and protections for outdoor workers. Additional recommendations include expanding hospital capacity and utilizing anticipatory financing so authorities can deploy resources before dangerous heat peaks.

Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat expert at NRDC India who was not involved in the study, noted that while countries like India possess well-structured adaptation plans, funding and implementation remain significant hurdles. “The real measure of our preparedness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths,” Tiwari said.