South African Motorists Face Severe Fuel Price Hikes in October

Projected Fuel Price Increases for October

Petrol prices are expected to rise between R2.83 and R3.12 per litre depending on the grade, while diesel increases range from R2.73 to R3.13 per litre. These updated estimates surpass predictions from two weeks prior, when petrol was predicted to rise by around R2.40 and diesel by between R2.04 and R2.40. The Central Energy Fund notes that under-recoveries for both fuel types worsen daily as market conditions shift.

At the coast, 93 Unleaded petrol is projected to reach approximately R29.75 per litre, while 95 Unleaded will hit around R29.17. In Gauteng, 95 Unleaded petrol is expected to climb to approximately R30.04 per litre. Meanwhile, the wholesale price of 500ppm diesel is set to reach about R30.96 at coastal regions and R31.84 for inland residents.

International Crude Oil Pressures and Middle East Tensions

Steep international oil prices are the primary driver behind the massive under-recoveries. Brent crude touched a four-month high of $108 per barrel this month following escalating tensions in the Middle East and attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure by Iran-based fighters.

Oil markets have experienced sharp fluctuations driven by the US-Iran diplomatic standoff, with the Strait of Hormuz acting as the primary pressure point. Brent crude jumped by more than $4 a barrel after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal that would have established a seven-day ceasefire and reopened the strategic waterway. Prices pared some gains after Qatar-mediated talks offered a brief prospect of a deal, but optimism faded as Brent traded between $106 and $107 a barrel.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran is awaiting a formal US response to its proposal. In contrast, US officials indicate that Washington requires progress on the nuclear issue as part of any formal agreement.

Previous Adjustments and Slate Levy Pressures

The upcoming increases follow substantial price adjustments in September, when both grades of petrol rose by R1.34 per litre and diesel increased by between R2.94 and R3.15 per litre. Additional pressure may stem from the Slate Levy, which compensates oil companies for fluctuations from the preceding month, particularly given recent market volatility.