Texas Tech enters the 2026 college football season as the clear +100 favorite to win the Big 12 conference championship, according to DraftKings odds as of August 2026, building on a 12-2 campaign last year that culminated in the program’s first-ever conference title and an Orange Bowl appearance.
2026 Big 12 Championship Odds and Projected Contenders
The latest odds from DraftKings position the Red Raiders at +100 to capture back-to-back league titles, followed by BYU at +550 and Utah at +650. According to Action Network projections, Texas Tech boasts the top defensive unit in the conference across all three levels, anchored by a veteran front seven featuring Adam Trick, Trey White, and A.J. Holmes Jr. The program also returns significant experience on the offensive line, ranking 12th nationally with 5,229 returning snaps, according to roster data tracked ahead of the kickoff.
Behind the frontrunners, the conference odds span a wide board. Kansas State sits at +1400, Houston at +1700, and Arizona at +1800. Further down the board, TCU enters at +2000, bolstered by the addition of Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig, who replaces Josh Hoover following his transfer to Indiana, as reported by Action Network.
Quarterback Shifts and Offseason Roster Changes
Texas Tech navigated significant offseason roster turbulence following the departure of quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who threw for 2,800 yards and 28 touchdowns at Cincinnati in 2025 before parting ways with the university amid sports gambling violation inquiries, according to Fox Sports reporting. Will Hammond is set to step into the starting role for the Red Raiders while recovering from an ACL injury, supported by an offensive coaching staff that maintains high continuity.
Meanwhile, conference opponents have also retooled through the transfer portal and coaching changes. Fox Sports noted that Oklahoma State hired head coach Eric Morris from North Texas following a 1-11 season in 2025. Morris brought quarterback Drew Mestemaker—who led the country with 4,279 passing yards last season—along with running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young to Stillwater.
Conference Schedule and Projected Standings
Despite the change at quarterback, computer models view Texas Tech’s path through the regular season as manageable. Action Network projections indicate that the tightest spread on the Red Raiders’ conference schedule is a double-digit projected margin on the road against Cincinnati, while BYU aims to close the gap after dropping two games to Texas Tech by a combined score of 63-14 during the 2025 season.
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