Cumbre Vieja Megatsunami Risk on the US East Coast
A volcanic collapse on Spain’s Canary Islands could trigger an Atlantic megatsunami, sending waves as high as 65 feet toward the US East Coast, according to warnings issued by volcanologist Professor Bill McGuire. While Atlantic hurricanes and West Coast earthquakes typically dominate discussions of American natural disasters, researchers have tracked geological instability on the island of La Palma, where the Cumbre Vieja volcano poses a long-term threat of ocean collapse.
Writing in BBC Science Focus, McGuire explained that extensive studies indicate a flank of the volcano will eventually crash into the North Atlantic. Computer models suggest a worst-case scenario collapse could generate destructive waves. Destructive waves could reach the Eastern Seaboard just nine hours after a collapse, leaving emergency services with limited time for evacuation.
Geologists debate feasibility of trans-Atlantic tsunami waves
Researchers point to physical evidence thousands of miles away to support the feasibility of trans-Atlantic tsunami waves. Huge boulders discovered along the coastline of the Bahamas are believed by some geologists to have been transported there by ancient tsunamis originating from volcanic collapses in the Canary Islands.
However, the severity and likelihood of this specific threat remain heavily contested within the scientific community. The Tsunami Society previously issued a report sharply criticizing what it termed unfounded scaremongering regarding a catastrophic Atlantic megatsunami. The committee stated that while the active volcano of Cumbre Vieja on Las Palma is discussed, other experts have long disputed the severity of this specific threat.
Despite these criticisms, McGuire maintains that a cataclysmic failure is inevitable, though he emphasizes that the timeline remains entirely uncertain. He noted that the event could happen centuries or even millennia down the line, meaning it does not represent an immediate danger to coastal populations.
Cumbre Vieja eruption demonstrated regional geological volatility
The geological volatility of the region was demonstrated clearly during the 2021 eruption of Cumbre Vieja. That eruption continued for 85 days, covering nearly 12 square kilometers of La Palma in lava flows and destroying more than 2,800 structures, including homes, roads, and agricultural land, and forcing thousands of residents to evacuate.
When examining the potential human cost of large tsunami events, researchers frequently reference historical disasters, such as the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami. Triggered by a 9.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Indonesia, that disaster killed more than 227,000 people across 15 nations, with waves reaching up to 167 feet in certain Indonesian areas and displacing approximately 1.7 million people.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Canary Islands Volcano Threat
When did the Cumbre Vieja volcano last erupt?
The Cumbre Vieja volcanic ridge last erupted in 2021 during an 85-day event that destroyed over 2,800 buildings and forced thousands of residents to flee.
How high could the waves reach if a megatsunami occurred?
Computer simulations suggest that a worst-case scenario collapse could generate waves reaching up to 65 feet along parts of the US East Coast.
How quickly would tsunami waves reach North America?
Predictive models indicate that destructive waves could cross the Atlantic and reach the Eastern Seaboard within nine hours of the initial volcanic flank collapse.
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