Gold prices dropped below the 4,000-dollar threshold on October 23, 2026, touching a session low of 3,996 dollars per unce and shedding roughly four percent over the week according to Investiční web. This downward pressure stemmed from a combination of higher oil prices, persistent inflation concerns, and growing expectations that the US central bank will keep interest rates high for longer than previously anticipated by the market.
Weekly Market Decline and Price Movements
The weekly drop marked the worst performance for gold since June 2026. Vietnam.vn noted that SJC gold bullion in Vietnam fell by 1,9 milionu VND za unci over the week to close at 138,7–141,7 milionu VND za unci pro nákup a prodej. On the charts, FXstreet.cz observed that XAU/USD traded inside a descending trend channel on the one-hour timeframe following nineteen touches dating back to September 3. Current chart analysis indicates that prices are heading toward the upper boundary of this channel, presenting a possible scenario for a long position targeting that upper trendline.
Market surveys conducted by Kitco News and cited by Vietnam.vn showed mixed sentiment among analysts and investors. Out of 17 surveyed market experts, 24 percent predicted higher prices, 41 percent expected continued declines, and 35 percent remained neutral. Conversely, a separate poll of 161 retail investors revealed that 42 percent anticipated a price recovery, 26 percent projected further drops, and 33 percent expected consolidation.
Long-Term Incrementum Forecasts and Sovereign Debt Pressures
Despite short-term volatility, independent analytical studies project substantial upside potential for the precious metal by the end of the decade. Incrementum’s structural study outlines a baseline forecast of 4,822 dollars per troysian ounce by the end of 2030, driven by escalating sovereign debt, monetary system shifts, and central bank demand. In an alternative scenario marked by significantly higher inflation, prices could reach 8,926 dollars per ounce.
Speaking at the Vyšehradské fórum, Pavel Ryba of Golden Gate explained that multi-thousand-dollar projections depend on macroeconomic variables rather than serving as immediate guarantees, emphasizing that investors must distinguish between long-term investment arguments and short-term market corrections. Investiční web noted that for the end of 2026, the Incrementum baseline model places gold at 3,247 dollars per ounce, contrasted with 4,772 dollars under the inflation-heavy scenario.
Contrasting Industrial Demand for Silver
Investiční web reported comments from Valek at a Prague conference highlighting silver’s dual role as both an investment asset and an industrial input, noting that combined demand alongside constrained supply elasticity creates room for market growth. Silver recently traded near 54 dollars per unce, maintaining a steep discount from its January peak above 120 dollars, while constrained supply limits market elasticity.
Upcoming Central Bank Decisions and Market Outlook
Market participants are turning their attention to upcoming monetary policy announcements, with a strong focus on interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and central banks in Canada and Japan. Marc Chandler pointed out via Vietnam.vn that half of the G10 central banks will hold policy meetings, though only the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to adjust rates. Meanwhile, Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management suggested that gold will likely fluctuate narrowly around the 4,000-dollar level, while James Stanley of Forex.com views that same threshold as a solid technical support level unless unexpected economic shocks trigger broad risk aversion.
US Congressional Elections and Economic Factors
Another factor investors are monitoring is the upcoming US congressional elections in November. However, World Gold Council analysis indicates that historical experience shows no consistent or significant impact from election outcomes alone on gold prices, leaving broader fiscal measures and economic shifts as the primary drivers to watch.
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