Champions League 2025-26: Opta Supercomputer Predictions After League Phase

Following the conclusion of the league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League, the Opta supercomputer has revisited its projections to assess which team is most likely to lift the trophy in Budapest in May. A total of 144 games were played, with 487 goals scored, resulting in eight teams securing a place in the last 16, twelve being eliminated, and sixteen awaiting their fate in the knockout play-offs.

Last-16 Draw

The draw for the last 16 of the 2025-26 Champions League has been completed, setting the stage for compelling matchups:

• Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea
• Galatasaray vs Liverpool
• Real Madrid vs Manchester City
• Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
• Newcastle vs Barcelona
• Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham
• Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting CP
• Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal

Arsenal Remain Favorites

Prior to the draw, Arsenal were identified as the favorites by the Opta supercomputer to win their first European Cup/Champions League title. Their strong performance in the Premier League and a perfect record in the league phase of the Champions League, securing a home advantage in the second leg of each round until the final, contribute to this prediction. The supercomputer now projects Arsenal to win the competition in 27.4% of its 10,000 simulations.

Other Contenders

Bayern Munich are also heavily favored, with a 14.3% chance of winning, despite a potentially challenging path that could include Real Madrid or Manchester City in the quarter-finals. Liverpool, despite facing Galatasaray, are still considered strong contenders with a 12.8% probability of lifting the trophy.

Real Madrid vs. Manchester City

The clash between Real Madrid and Manchester City marks the fifth consecutive season these two giants will meet in the Champions League knockout stage – a competition first. Manchester City are favored to advance from this tie (64.3%), having already defeated Real Madrid in the league phase (2-1). City have a 10.8% chance of winning the tournament while Real Madrid’s chances are estimated at 2.8%.

Dark Horses and Upset Potential

Barcelona, facing Newcastle United, have a 7.7% chance of winning, while Newcastle’s chances are slightly lower at 4.7%. Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, facing a potentially hard route including Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal or Tottenham, are given a 4.6% chance of retaining their title. Bodø/Glimt, who exceeded expectations by beating Manchester City and Atlético Madrid in the league phase, have a 0.4% chance of winning – a monumental upset.

Chelsea and Atlético Madrid

Chelsea, with a 6.9% chance of winning, and Atlético Madrid, with a 2% chance, also remain in contention. Tottenham’s chances are estimated at 1.2%.

Source: Opta Analyst