China Expands Power in Bangladesh as India Ties Crumble

The balance of power is shifting in Bangladesh: After the fall of long-ruling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024, China’s influence is growing noticeably, while its once close partner India is losing ground. Bangladesh is a Muslim-majority country with a Hindu minority surrounded by India on three sides. The country will elect a new government on February 12 and the two favorites have traditionally had much cooler relations with India than Hasina, reports “Reuters“.

The relationship with its overpowering neighbor India is severely strained. Many people see New Delhi as complicit in the “crimes of Sheikh Hasina,” according to Reuters. In addition, there are disputes over how to deal with the Hindu minority, visa restrictions, sports boycotts and the impression felt by young voters that Bangladesh is politically too much under India’s influence – a climate in which China is perceived as a more attractive alternative.

Beijing is taking advantage of the power vacuum

Her Awami League is now banned and Hasina lives in self-imposed exile in New Delhi. A court in Dhaka sentenced her to death late last year over a brutal crackdown on an uprising in which a UN report counted as many as 1,400 dead and thousands injured.

China is consistently filling this power vacuum. According to Reuters, the People’s Republic has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for more than a decade, with an annual trade volume of around $18 billion – around 95 percent of which are imports of Chinese goods.

Beijing’s commitment goes far beyond this: Chinese companies are investing hundreds of millions of dollars and major projects for roads, ports and power plants are being pushed forward. Most recently, a defense agreement was signed to build a drone factory near the Indian border, according to Reuters.

The Chinese ambassador Yao Wen is a constant presence among politicians, officials and journalists. It’s about billion-dollar projects and a closer partnership. “China is constantly expanding its influence openly and behind the scenes,” says analyst Constantino Xavier, according to “Reuters”. In addition, Beijing benefits from the “decreasing commitment of the USA and Trump’s tariff war” and is seen as a “more reliable economic partner”.

Distrust of India runs deep

At the same time, the relationship with India is more tense than it has been for a long time. A well-known Bangladeshi bowler was dropped from an IPL team following pressure from Hindu groups after Hindus were attacked in Bangladesh. According to Reuters, Dhaka responded with a TV ban on the league and demanded that World Cup games be moved to Sri Lanka. The result: Bangladesh was completely eliminated from the tournament after their application was rejected.

Visas have also been restricted on both sides and high-level meetings are rare. Many people in Bangladesh see India as partly responsible for Hasina’s rule. “People see India as complicit in Sheikh Hasina’s crimes,” said Humaiun Kobir, foreign policy adviser to opposition leader Tarique Rahman, according to Reuters. One will not accept close relations with a country that “harbours a terrorist” and endangers its own stability.

Rahman himself is more moderate: they want “friendship with all countries,” but always in the interests of their own people, Reuters quotes him as saying. At a rally he summed up the mood in one sentence: “Not Dilli, not Pindi, Bangladesh above all.”

Between Beijing and New Delhi – Bangladesh is looking for balance

Analysts warn against interpreting the deepening ties with China as a rejection of India. “Bangladesh needs both China and India, and you have to see it pragmatically,” explains Lailufar Yasmin from the University of Dhaka, according to “Reuters”.

The fact is: Bangladesh is surrounded by India on three sides and is dependent on transit routes, trade and security cooperation. According to government data, bilateral trade is stable at around $13.5 billion, mostly Indian exports to Bangladesh, reports Reuters.

Despite political tensions, the Indian company Adani is now supplying more electricity to ease bottlenecks in Bangladesh, even if Dhaka criticizes the tariffs agreed under Hasina.